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Saturday, June 11, 2016

Watch SE Coast June 18th-26th

6-21  LP did form, but it looks like its also with an upper low.  NWS has it at 1008mb as of this morning, but it looked better last night.  Its currently between a ridge and approaching cold front.

Meanwhile TD 4 did actually form and made it to TS Danielle, the earliest 4th storm in history.  It moved WSW over Mexico. Danielle peaked at 45mph and 1007mb.  12 inches of rain was expected.
The N Caribbean remains juicy though and there is another cold front moving into the area today/tomorrow. 

6-17 - still there, a little weaker on the euro today.  The GFS has a lot of potential in days 8-15including Gulf Action near NOLA.

6-16  Different position, still out there though. Low heads off the coast, probably becomes warm core as its cut off from baroclinic forces, then heads briefly NW before heading out to sea - per Euro.  Here are peak gusts.  Surface, 925 and 850 are warmer around the storm, indicating warm core as well. 

6-11  Todays EPS run shows the SE coast getting juiced up around the 18th with an odd LP descending into that area.   As weak HP also descends, almost as a back door, the cold front moves off producing some spin in that juicy area on the 19th. 
It lingers, not strengthening much through the 21st.  You can see a cold front heading over the lakes at this time as well.  Position of the ridge is favorable

As the cold front approaches, the storm gains some incentive.
As it passes, it starts to bomb.
Definitely warm core by the 25th and heading up the coast.
Resulting in this image....
Thats a 980 LP, winds 50mph.
So this is early, 10 days out.  Pattern favors in close development and cold fronts are likely to spin up storms.  So I think there will be at least eyes on this area through the third week in June.  Its track is up for grabs - it could just spin up and head east.

0z GFS also has the initial LP descend into the Mid Atlantic, where it reforms off the coast and heads east.

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