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Saturday, August 23, 2014

Cristobal (TD4)

8-28 -moving harmlessly away - except for rips and swells.

8-24  0z and 6z runs showing no landfall threat, except for Bermuda on the GFS and Newfoundland on the ECMFW.  Euro ens still show FL in play, but not much in way of support. No real respect for this system as the HWRF has it going to a minimal hurricane, but only once it reaches 40/60.   However, as the center keeps being relocated (this morning to the NE) and until there is a solid movement and consistent location of center, still monitor for EC.

12z runs - CMC heads it NE, then N, then NW then NE - deepens nicely.  Misses Bermuda on the jog NW.  Has another cyclone forming near the Bahamas at the end of the run
Euro operational heads it NW day one NE day two, N day three and NE day four
GFDL similar - never makes it more than a TS. Day four to the N of Bermuda
GFS much slower, brushes Bermuda hr 114
HWRF like GFS, but a bit further north at 114, also develops into H2 and develops 2nd cyclone like CMC
NAVGEM brushes Bermuda to the north at hr 108 - deepens nicely

One more run should eliminate our threat on the EC, but still watching out for Bermuda.

8-23  Most recent runs... off FSU site

CMC - no longer into Gulf, now heading NNE once into Bahamas, skirting Newfoundland
Euro ens mean - wnw out of Bahamas across central FL.  Nothing very strong.
Euro operational - wnw for a day, then slowly due north until hr 120  when it kicks due east as it approaches OBX (doesn't get too close though)
GFDL - the 18z, well, its a little messed up.  The surface map has it similar to Euro, but striking near NC/SC border at 126hr.  The centered map has it going SW of Haiti. 12 run has it skirting the FL coast to hr 120.
GFS 12z has it looking like GFDL, too close for comfort, but staying offshore, then once it makes a NE turn it explodes sub 980.
Hwrf also has it off shore, parallel to the coast through 120 - 966 lowest pressure.

So, we wait while the system gets more organized. We know for sure its missing this weekends trough and the next one as it slowly meanders nnw.  It should catch the next one on Thurs/Fri though, but there are some signs of that slowing.  Definitely keep an eye on this - all of east coast.