Storm 3 - could be the one! (spoiler, it was)

 2/9  Set up is an upper low over TX that heads northeast into TN valley and then transfers off the coast. At the upper levels, there's two systems to the north of the main one that come into play.  First one comes through and delivers some decent cold air. The second kicks the storm east instead of letting it continue north.  Now things would have been really interesting if that second piece was faster or dove in behind more instead of kicking it out.  Then that upper low wouldn't be in such a hurry.

At the surface it's similar but the surface low is in front of the upper low, until the upper low catches up and causes the surface low to deepen. You'll see as the low approaches WV, it transfers to the coast and then deepens pretty quickly.  

The deepening quickly and the arrival of some colder air makes it possible for it to snow. While it may be in the 50s today and tomorrow, there is some cold air coming in behind that first shortwave and it gets here just in time for the surface low.  You can even see the low generate some of its own cold air. As you follow it out of TX notices the west side of the low turns blue.  

As far as final outcomes, right now the five models that go out this far agree there's a storm.  Its strength and path isn't agreed upon though.  The GFS and Euro however, are pretty close, and both hit the Tristate and PA. Icon is further north, UKMET further south.  The Canadian has been bopping around too much, but is currently aligned with the Ukie.

Ensembles are similar.

This leads me to believe that we have a good chance at a 6+" snowfall coming up on Tuesday.

Saturday Feb 10th update

System is still a go for a snow day on Tuesday.  Timing is overnight Monday until about noon on Tuesday.  Here's the surface run from the GFS

The 18z run got the ULL down to 528 just south of LI

These are the latest snowfall maps.  The UKMET didn't update in pivotal but it did push a little north on the 12z.  It's pretty safe to say that if you are in NNJ, HV, CT, RI, MA that you are getting snow, likely over 6"

Uptons first snow map

Results - after a shift north in the models over the weekend, nearly taking CT out of the precip, the models reshifted south, again almost taking CT out of the precip.  

Upton didn't bite on the shift south.

And as seen on the euro loop, the snow line shifted south then very last minute, north.

The storm focused its attention on NEPA, NNJ, HV, and CT.  This was it's final outcome

Upper Fairfield County was in the 10-13" range. Farmington had reports of 13-15".  We had 11.1" officially.  

NY metro and NEPA totals 4-14"

Listing of totals from Uptons area can be found here