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Sunday, January 26, 2014

Feb 5-7

2-5 - ended up with 9" of snow, .5" of sleet and a coating of ice. Later, light snow returned.  Low moved up into PA, spawned a secondary off lower delmarva and the two fought.  Models overstated the 850 temp for the immediate area, with the NAM coming in +5 at one point 24 hrs before.  NWS had  us in 6-10 range, but after seeing the NAM freak, went with 4-6.  Snow maps from 18z included:

2-1 Euro got much colder, below 0 at all levels at each 6 hr interval.  It also has .75-1" of qpf, which is a 7-10 inch forecast.  Snow map is underdone.  GFS at 18z keeps the brunt of the storm under  0 at 850 for us, but still goes above eventually, with surface temps near freezing, if not just under.  This is a colder shift for the gfs, and now brings the low east along LI instead of to the west.  CMC is with euro, even colder.  UKMET looks like it misses us south, weird.

Euro qpf
Euro snow
gfs snow

1-30 - Models back and forth - todays runs torch with a Western dominant storm, leaving the question as to how much snow falls first, then how much ice.  Not sure it completely turns to pure rain at this point, and there is time for it to flip back east again.  Todays snow maps
GFS 12z
0z Euro

1-27 - this bears watching, trending late today to storm

GFS - three runs with storm going west with rain, 18z heads it to our south, close enough for mixing though
Euro - heads to lakes on 0z run, 988 mb west of NY state

1-26 Next chance?

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Jan 29-31

Didn't look like the maps below  - here is the snow map totals from accupro
and the NORHSC

And the low temps

1-28 - Amazing snowfall amts predicted for SC/NC coast.  SNJ and SE CT get brushed, possibly
below 0 in SC?????

Euro - brushes NJ, 6-9 in NC/SC

Nam with over 12 in NC, brushes NJ + SE Mass

1+25 - nothing of note for this time frame

1-24 - Euro backed off with the split off of energy, but still brings snow from the GA/FL border up to NC. mostly right along the coast.
Snow map from 12z Euro on 1-24

1-23First run with what could be an interesting set up for the end of the month.  Euro has ridiculously amplified trough, which is a bit too far east and not negative to benefit us with snow.  But it does do so down south.   Some buzz on the boards about this, but not looking likely just yet. We'll need the other systems to set the stage.  GFS has rounded trough, EURO keeps a piece off (over TX), which pulls it back and amplifies it.

Also, this Sat has nuisance snow, maybe monday as well.  Its those systems that set up the one above.

Monday, January 20, 2014

Jan 21

1-21 - snow started early, went from 10 or so on, small flakes until 3 or so.  3" at 5pm.  Should this band stick over us, 8" is realistic.  If the band pivots off, then 4-6".   No changes on models, just a matter of where the bands set up.

1-20  Wasn't going to open a post on this one since it was a measly clipper, progged to go south and east of us. But the precip amounts are trending NW and the .5 qpf line on the 12z gfs is running from the NE corner of CT to SW corner.  NWS has WS Watches out for coastal areas.  Based on the trend of the GFS and NAM, we may end up with a WS Watch later today or a quick warning tomorrow afternoon. Current call for DXR is 4-8 based on the .4 qpf on the latest gfs and a 15:1 ratio. Temps in the teens most of the day.

Friday, January 17, 2014

Mid Jan to Superbowl

 0z rain sat night into sunday, clearing for game
6z snow Sat night into sun morn, clearing for game
 12z  snow/rain on Sunday, light, clearing by gametime
18z Snow/rain on Saturday, light, clearing Sunday

Euro - both runs have cold front passing with light precip

0z gfs - batch of light precip on saturday, clear chilly sunday
6z gfs - light precip on sunday, borderline snow flurries, not much though
12z gfs - clear, chilly
18z gfs - light precip sat and sun, snow or rain, close call, nothing much though

0z - lt snow sat, warm front moves through ahead of a storm to our west Sunday night, with lt rain or snow.

12z - light rain most of the day, chilly

GFS - wave moves along stalled front 0,6,12z.  Timing and position of 850 line differ
0z Wave moves along stalled front, with moderate rain or snow (850 line is really close to NYC)
6z Light to mod snow clearing by afternoon, not too cold, not much snow inch or two.
12z Mod  snow early, light snow afternoon, possibly at gametime, a few inches

Euro - 0z has wave along front, nothing much, but snow in morning, clearing out by gametime
12z  A little more precip, but also warmer with 850 line moving to i84 by afternoon, some snow, some rain

0z - storm passes east on thurs, south on sat, fair and cold
6z - fair and cold, but storm lurks to the sw
12z - warm front lifts north with weak storm to our west, light to mod snow most of the day
18z weak front pushes through with light snow on sunday. Below normal temp, but not terrible
Euro - deterministic
0zShortwave moves over our area with light snow sat, fair sunday, very cold
12z Front stalls to our south, impulse brings light to mod snow Sunday morning, clears for game

Latest runs have temps low thirties

1-22 -no huge storm, just some nuisance snow or rain
0z - frontal passage with snow showers Saturday, bitter cold Sunday with chance of snow showers
6z - LP into Quebec brings warm front up, then back as a cold front on Sunday, normal temps, chance of rain or snow showers
12z - LP forms off coast Sat night, good snowfall, clears out by Sunday afternoon, quite cold
18z - LP into Quebec, no warm front, passing cold front through with snow showers/squalls on saturday, bitterly cold Sunday
0z ens - cold front passes Friday, fair Sat and Sun, below normal, but not much.
12z ens - snow moves in Saturday, weak low heads just to our east close enough to change snow to rain overnight, back to snow perhaps on Sunday - clear by gametime, normal cold
Deterministic - only goes to Saturday, but hints at phasing of two streams and snow on sunday.

0z gfs Disturbance moves in from west, south of the area, but enough WAA to trigger snow during Sun
6z - Frontal passage on Sat with rain to snow, low forming off coast on Sun, some snow, nothing major
12z - Fair and cold

0z euro has warm front lifting through, drizzle, warmer than norm, but cold still.

1-20am Watch for sneaky clipper tues - precip trending further north

0z gfs Double barrel low approaches from the SW with moderate snow on SB
6z - frnt passes through with light snow on SB
12z gfs - low runs up apps to our west, cold rain/fr rain on SB
18z gfs low runs west of apps, cold rain on SB

0z Euro - low to lakes on fri/sat, front passage on sat night, clearing on sunday with coastal off coast on sun night
12z Euro - weaker low to lakes,cold air damming on Sat with frz rain likely starting as snow here.  Front passage sat night, clearing and cold for game.

1-19 Dusting this morning and flurries most of the morning

 0z GFS - warms up on Fri with storm going through lakes, cold front follows sat, but not much colder, average temps to above norm
6z - LP moves right over NYC - heavy rain for game
12z GFS - really blows up storm, west of the area, warming it, but rain heavy sun morn, turning colder for game
18z - storm moves from IN, to Erie, to Albany, with heavy rain, but clears out turns colder for game
0z euro ens - couple of waves, nothing much, 27th is best shot.  Superbowl - clear and cold
12z - storm develops on Fri and hits on Sat.  Cold and clear on Sun

1-18 Two inches of snow this morning. Models weak on next clipper, but its looks pretty good right now.

Superbowl update -
0z GFS  -cold front moves through saturday, wave moves through Sun evening with chance of snow, normal temps
6 z GFS - cold air eases up, warm front approaches, fair and normal temps
12z GFS - cold frnt passes Sat, lifts north Sun into Mon, precip overnite Sun into Monday, warmer than normal
18z GFS - cold front passes sat, lifts north Sun nite.

0z Euro ens control brings system NE into Great Lakes, warmth with it - in the 50's on Sat. 12z also has that but also has a secondary along the coast.  Rain in the morning.

Ahh what will the weather be on Feb 2 -Euro ens go to 2/1, with front clearing.  GFS - 0z is clear and very cold. 6z has a great lakes cutter dragging a warmfront Sat morn. 12z has cold front swinging through with heavy precip.  Rain to snow on Sun Morn.  18z cold rain as warmfront lifts through. GFS ens have no precip (too far out) but colder than normal. NAEFS is clear with normal temps.

Actually, more interesting is will it snow tomorrow morning, and how much?  700 vertical velocity looks good for the morning, maybe an inch or two.