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Sunday, January 26, 2014

Feb 5-7

2-5 - ended up with 9" of snow, .5" of sleet and a coating of ice. Later, light snow returned.  Low moved up into PA, spawned a secondary off lower delmarva and the two fought.  Models overstated the 850 temp for the immediate area, with the NAM coming in +5 at one point 24 hrs before.  NWS had  us in 6-10 range, but after seeing the NAM freak, went with 4-6.  Snow maps from 18z included:

2-1 Euro got much colder, below 0 at all levels at each 6 hr interval.  It also has .75-1" of qpf, which is a 7-10 inch forecast.  Snow map is underdone.  GFS at 18z keeps the brunt of the storm under  0 at 850 for us, but still goes above eventually, with surface temps near freezing, if not just under.  This is a colder shift for the gfs, and now brings the low east along LI instead of to the west.  CMC is with euro, even colder.  UKMET looks like it misses us south, weird.

Euro qpf
Euro snow
gfs snow

1-30 - Models back and forth - todays runs torch with a Western dominant storm, leaving the question as to how much snow falls first, then how much ice.  Not sure it completely turns to pure rain at this point, and there is time for it to flip back east again.  Todays snow maps
GFS 12z
0z Euro

1-27 - this bears watching, trending late today to storm

GFS - three runs with storm going west with rain, 18z heads it to our south, close enough for mixing though
Euro - heads to lakes on 0z run, 988 mb west of NY state

1-26 Next chance?

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