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Wednesday, February 26, 2014

March 2-5

3-3 snow aloft, never made it to ground. S Jersey has some reports of 4-6 inches. Nothing greater reported elsewhere yet.
12 z nam concedes. 1-3 for ct. Last update. Going skiing.
3-1 morning. 6z runs for gfs and euro only dust ct. Most precip south of phl.  Nam still holding on to us getting 6+.  Cmc is in between. Jma is from yesterday.   Calling 2-4 for southern ct as of these runs.  Trenton on south to dc with 6-12.

2-28 night  18z gfs has 1" for DXr and moves 6" line to pa/md border. 0z puts DXr in .25 range, perhaps 2-4". Nam still with over 6".

2-28 lunchtime
If you're in CPA/CNJ you gotta feel good about the snow coming.  Its the only consistent area.  South is mix, and the GFS is starting to flop on its northern edges.  NAM, granted at 84hrs, is on board with the precip. Its orientation isn't the same as the other models though.  CMC is weak at 12z today.  0z Euro had band of 1"+ qpf CPA to Northern MD.  At DXR its .8 on the text with 850's -6 to -10, so decent snow growth likely.  My concern remains suppression and a map that will look like today's 12z gfs.  These latitudinal storms have a difficult time throwing snow north as we have seen previously this year.  Opposed to a storm moving north/northeast up the coast where the precip usually spreads further north than modeled.

CMC 12z

Euro 0z

gfs 12z

GFS 6z

GFS 0z

NAm 12z






2-27 lunchtime
GFS holds steady about .7 precip for dxr, more to the south.  Temps at 850 are around -8 in our area which is ideal for maximum snow formation.  Otherwise the instantweather map below is overdone on the northern side of 12+



2-27 morning  Euro on board with large snow storm with over a foot on  the printout.

SUN 18Z 02-MAR   3.5    -3.1    1020      75      93    0.01     558     542    
MON 00Z 03-MAR   1.6    -3.7    1019      87      98    0.01     558     543    
MON 06Z 03-MAR  -0.9    -1.8    1017      95     100    0.18     556     542    
MON 12Z 03-MAR  -2.8    -2.3    1014      91      98    0.21     553     543    
MON 18Z 03-MAR  -3.5    -4.0    1011      88     100    0.49     549     541    
TUE 00Z 04-MAR  -6.6    -7.6    1014      80      98    0.34     544     533    
TUE 06Z 04-MAR -12.4   -10.2    1018      70      46    0.01     540     526 
 
 
 
GFS more cold and further south with 6+
SUN 12Z 02-MAR  -4.5    -4.7    1023      89      94    0.02     554     536    
SUN 18Z 02-MAR  -5.1    -8.0    1026      75      98    0.01     553     533    
MON 00Z 03-MAR  -8.7   -10.0    1029      73      97    0.00     553     531    
MON 06Z 03-MAR -12.2   -11.4    1029      74      92    0.00     552     530    
MON 12Z 03-MAR -11.8   -11.3    1028      80     100    0.01     552     531    
MON 18Z 03-MAR -10.2   -10.3    1024      95     100    0.21     550     532    
TUE 00Z 04-MAR -10.1   -10.2    1021      97      99    0.38     546     530    
TUE 06Z 04-MAR -11.5   -13.1    1022      94     100    0.06     541     525  
 
 
CMC has temps under 850 for entire period for all but CNJ/SNJ and SEPA and also puts out over a 1" qpf with more in CPA.
DGEX is aiming at SNJ for snow jackpot, but still puts out 6+ in our area.



2-26 - CMC and GFS on board for cold, and snow. Euro 0z says 6-12, 12z has warmer 850's.  Difference between the models at 850 is 11 degrees with Euro being 1.7 on Monday 18z.  Tough seeing Euro all by itself on this one, and that its flipped and flopped.  Have to think its a 6-12" event for most inland areas with some ice or mix at the coast. 

2-25 - In watching for the Crazy Euro storm for the 3/1 - 3/2 range, that one fizzled and behind it came a new opportunity.  12z GFS today doesn't really develop that much of a low, so the confidence in the snow map below is low, but does put out a long period of light/moderate snow.  Problem with daytime light snow is that it doesn't accumulate in March - has to be night or dynamically induced.  This looks more like a arctic boundary overrunning situation atm.  But GFS does have DXR and most of CT, HV and NNJ in frozen precip.
0z Euro run on the other hand, develops a low and runs it up the apps, just south of NYC.  Typically that track with arctic air in the area would result in pure snow, but it warms the 850s up except in most extreme NW Subs.  Most of the area is in 3-6 inch, but over a period of time.  Once up to Catskills, Albany, VT, its a 12+ snow.

12z - New euro text shows about 1.2" qpf, with 850's in the -6 to -8 range for most of it.  Should be a foot storm, with the 12z-18z time frame on monday having over 6 inches, so really heavy snow.  Maps not out yet. 





Friday, February 21, 2014

Feb 26th

2-26 snow squalls today, no accum  some accum in li

2-25  No major issues until next Mon/Tues.  Currently flurries, and expect only light coating if any accum with the chance of pops 2-26 to 2-28

2-21 - Minor snow event on the 26th. 50/50 that we get 4-6 inches from it.  Its so small that it comes and goes.  Flurries on the 24th/25th also possible.

12 gfs puts out .4 qpf with 850 temps int he -10 to -15 range, so high ratio.
0z euro puts out .1 on each day, Mon, Tues and Wed.
CMC is OTS
DGEX is solid hit - .5 to .75 qpf
UKMET has a different solution with bigger storm moving over area on Mon/Tues. 

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Crazy storm on Euro

2-25 update.  Storm enters No Cal, but just dissapates as it crosses the Rockies.  ITs a 1004 over OK but then further degenerates.  The moisture follows the high out, right over us, but the huge cold high coming in behind it must be drying it all out.  Honestly, still makes sense that there would be a storm, but perhaps its just out of juice.  Anyway, there's another one on the way for 3-3/3-4

 2-21 update - nothing showing as system remains surpressed,   Wed the 26th is next threat, with the 2nd of March possibly being a GL cutter.

I need more coffee to digest the last euro run. The qpf below, which is all snow north Chesapeake, except outer Cape Cod. Most of our area, a line from Cumberland, MD to Deposit, NY to White River Jct VT on east has over 12"with most of SNE, LI, Central and NE NJ, including NYC as 24+ on the snowfall map, with parts of CT, MA with 4+ feet on the ground, and parts of NH/ME with 6-7 ft on the ground. Sharp cutoff north and west of that line. To the south of the PA/MD line, the 12" area includes ne parts of WV, all of VA east of Lynchburg, and it dips into NC as deep as perhaps Durham and Rocky Mount.


Winds sustained over the water at 45-50kts, gusts over ACK and CCOD at 70+kts.
Temps in the teens and single digits for most of the area during the storm.
Pressure at hr 228 is 996 off OBX to 988 at hr 234 at maybe just SW of 40/70 to 976 at hr 240 around 43.5n/66w. Moves fast, but is juicy



CMC forms lp out to sea at 240hr
GFS 0z and 6 z bring weak storms on 3/3 and 3/4


Friday, February 7, 2014

2-12 to 2-14

2-12 afternoon - Euro holds, a bit colder, GFS still in la la land.  18z NAM comes around to proper 850 temps and precip - brings 6+ to coast! 12+ inland!


2-12 late morning.  Last update due to travel.  All models show at least 6 inches of snow on their snow maps, posted below.  Short range models should be used going forward, but I won't be here!  I'm thinking 8-14 inches is doable in Danbury,  10-16 in Putnam, Orange, Dutchess and Litchfield Ctys.  6-10 in Westchester, NNJ (with Sussex 8-14).  Catskills perhaps 14-20 inches (despite models having them in the 6-10).  Biggest bust potential is higher along the coast. I'm still skeptical on how the NAM now, and the GFS handle the 850's.  Timing of the storm and type of precip is varying still run to run.  Sometimes a good dump on the front end, sometimes we are in the comma head and don't turn over (CMC/UKMET) and sometimes its a 4-5 in front, dryslot/rain, 4-5 on back.  Still a lot of details to work out, and this can still trend further west and bring mostly rain, but that chance is slowly dying.



2-11 Evening  - If you throw out the GFS, CMC, Euro and NAM all have a good snowstorm coming.  Euro as noted below has mixing issues, but has the most precip so a good thump of snow should proceed a turnover. NAM is cold, but drier, catching up though withthe 18z run.  CMC briefly has temps over 0 at 850, with NW CT and NY staying below. Below is warmest 850 and precip maps



NAM runs all look pretty similar and all areas stay snow.  0z run had less precip (.25-.5) , the 6.12 runs put down 6-8 inches on the snow map for most of the areas n or w of nyc as there is .5-.75 in our area and higher amounts to the east, with the 18z starting to have 8-10 inch amounts.   the 18z precip map is below -with 850's and the snow amounts look light.
18z nam precip



0z gfs runs low from east of OBX at 1004 to just east of ACK at 982 - great snowstor, qpf though is only .5-.75 for dxr, with a part of CT in 1+
6z gfs  runs low from OBX at 1000 to off Cape Cad at 976 .5-.75 precip
12z gfs runs low from just inside OBX at 1000 to over BM at 988 .5-.75 precip
18z gfs runs low from just inside OBX at 1000 to inside BM over ACK or MVY at 988 - .75-1"  This run is really juiced up with large parts of CT and NJ over 1.5
All runs have around 6 inches for dxr, though snowmaps are all different. 

18z gfs precip
2-11  Lunch

 Euro is a mix and match for most areas along the East Coast, with snow to rain to snow. Some points of reference which remain with temps at 850 below zero, and I mean barely below zero are Orange (Mass), Westfield (Mass), Poughkepsie, Sussex, Allentown. All these spots have over 1.0" qpf. Areas south of that line mix. Even Nashua and Worcester go over to rain for some time. Boston as an example has 850 temps near +7. However, most areas have a good front end snow and some extra back end snow. ISP has mostly rain, with some front snow and a 983 mb mslp. MTP with 982 mb and mostly rain, but even these sites have snow to start, its just too wide of a range to predict. ISP as an example goes from -2.5 at 12z to .8 at 18z, with .56" falling in that time frame. Complicating things for the Island are that surface temps are over freezing just about the whole event. BOS and ACK then have mslp of 979 at 12z Friday. Other points checked were Morristown, Somerville, Newark, NYC, Groton, BDR, ACY, HVN, BDL, and DXR (of course). All these had a mix at some point, all had above freezing surface temps at some points too. Take away is that the Euro makes this a really difficult forecast for the bulk of the population in the NE. Alot of everything

2-10   Looking at 6-10" - CMC/Euro v GFS.  Nam in good place, lacks precip *odd for NAM

CMC
0z  -Low from OBX to ACY, jog east then back  NNE, inside BM, 
12z LP from NC to 999 off delmarva,  inside BM around 988, right off CCod 984 to gulf of maine at 972.  Most of CT in the .75-1 inch with east CT in the 1-+1.25.  NJ big winner with 1.5+; PHL with 1.25.  850 temps marginal along I95 - PHL, Central NJ, LI, SE CT, RI and SE MA all get some rain. West and North of that line look for 8-14 inches.

GFS
0z - shoots ne off OBX, maybe a flurry
6z - a little further north, still too far to be trouble.  2-4 inches.  850s not an issue, except SE NJ.
12z - a little further north, from OBX to BM. This is a classic track for a noreaster and should generate a foot of snow for most areas N or W of NYC.  850s a problem for SNJ, LI, RI, SE CT and SE Mass.  The issue I have with this run is that it only produces .2" of precip for DXR.  Its not the fastest storm, and should produce more precip than that.  DXR in .25-.5 range for 3-6 inches, SNJ has nearly an inch, but much of that rain.
18z runs a bit further east than 12z, keeps 850's good for all but immediate shoreline.  a 988 low just SE of the BM.  Again, it lacks precip with most of CT in the .25-.5 range with the Easternmost sections at .5-.75 (but run risk of some rain there.). Delmarva gets pounded with precip, mostly snow.



Euro.

0z with 996 low over E NC, heads north over Del Bay at 992, to LI at 988 to Gulf of Maine at 980.  A Ton of precip.  850s marginal except for NW NJ/PA and north of Orange Cty.  But most precip falls in favorable temp range as snow.  Snow map has widespread 12-18" snows NW of I95

12z same basic path as 0z, with a slight northwest trend for 850 temps, but still widespread 12-18" snow

12z nam
Only goes up to when the storm hits, but leaning towards Euro for placement, bt GFS for precip.
So the question is now how much will there be - CMC/Euro with 8-16", GFS with little or none, NAM looking good trackwise, but precip is light. Seems to light for a storm that strong, in that position. IF you go between the two, you get a mostly snow storm for most of the area, with 6-10 inches.  That is tonites call.


2-8

CMC 0z has low coming up coast and through the lakes.  Precip arrives thurs. Mix.  Storms phase to our NE on Fri
12z has storm a bit further east for snow on Thurs.  But precip is located more to the east of the center, keeping it light for inland, moderate for coast
GFS
0z brings low up (actually it looks like its coming from the gulf, but that system dies, another comes through and reforms over NC.  Low tracks just east of the Hudson, giving most in the tristate rain on Friday
6z - looks like cmc 0z. This time though the southern system does come around and up the coast, right position for a good storm but... A stronger northern LP over the lakes pumps warm air in and the 850s are not condusive to frozen precip.  Precip arrives thurs evening, lows phase fri aft in Nova Scotia
12z two 1004 lps, one from lakes, one from coast arrive together over NYC, but do nothing spectacular.  Rain starts thurs evening

Euro
12z has .3qpf starting 0z thurs with temps all below freezing all layers.  3-5 inches maybe.  ITs key is that the system rounding the trough comes up much faster.   Not a typical Euro error, but it is a typical GFS error. 

Gfs may be sending the first wave in southern stream  out too fast, breaking it in two.  Euro may be holding it back too much - those are typical errors.  Look for solution in the middle, leaning euro though.


2-7 Since the weekend storm is off the table, attention goes to the time frame of the 13th.

CMC 0z - shunts storm off south
CMC 12 - comes in a bit further north, but still just misses the tristate, brushing SNJ and SNE (sound familiar)
Euro 0z - ptype issues, low moves over nassau county, precip arrives by 7am
Euro 12z - a little faster, with precip arriving at midnite in CT.  Looks to be all snow at quick glance based on thickness, but its rather weak, precip from 1" near ACY to .5" along I95 and cuts off quick further north. For dxr .25"

GFS 0z  - runs OTS, but tries to create an inverted trough thurs night
GFS 6z runs 100mb low from OBX to just SE of BM, but precip isnt that much and it seems too warm
GFS 12z  has disturbance going way south, with LP  heading across the upper plains to WNY - warmer, with cold front passing on Friday.

NAM 18z - curiously has a system, albeit light, hitting VA with snow.
DGEX 6z slides that system to SNJ, follows with the one the EUro has right behind it and bombs it in the pocket, south of LI - takes it inside the bm, but is cold. 1000mb off NC, 984 S of LI to 976 E of Boston.  Its the most interesting, but is also the DGEX
Navgem - also has this system that NAM has, pops it off  the coast NE, but interesting to watch.
UKMET seems to want to go SE

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

2/8-2/10

2-10 ended up with 1.5"  Came down hard for an hour or so.

2-8 GFS still the most moist with .4 for DXR.  The SREFS have .25ish. General feeling is nuisance snow 1-3 inches.  However, will need to watch as it approaches.  Euro still has .05 for precip, NAM has .04.  HI Res models are dry too.

2-7 evening - GFS trying to pop a 1012  low when this disturbance hits the coast and puts down .15 on the operation and .25 on the ens.  Watch for jet streak enhancement as well, though its not oriented properly atm.



2-7 - still just a chance of light snow - discontinuing coverage

2-6 no real changes for today - still two weak systems, some light snow with the northern stream one.  We'll see if that enhances tomorrow.  NAM is closest with the systems





2-4 A lot of catch up to do on this one.  In brief, went from blizzard from 240hrs out to nothing 96 hrs out.  Here is the history in pix