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Wednesday, February 26, 2014

March 2-5

3-3 snow aloft, never made it to ground. S Jersey has some reports of 4-6 inches. Nothing greater reported elsewhere yet.
12 z nam concedes. 1-3 for ct. Last update. Going skiing.
3-1 morning. 6z runs for gfs and euro only dust ct. Most precip south of phl.  Nam still holding on to us getting 6+.  Cmc is in between. Jma is from yesterday.   Calling 2-4 for southern ct as of these runs.  Trenton on south to dc with 6-12.

2-28 night  18z gfs has 1" for DXr and moves 6" line to pa/md border. 0z puts DXr in .25 range, perhaps 2-4". Nam still with over 6".

2-28 lunchtime
If you're in CPA/CNJ you gotta feel good about the snow coming.  Its the only consistent area.  South is mix, and the GFS is starting to flop on its northern edges.  NAM, granted at 84hrs, is on board with the precip. Its orientation isn't the same as the other models though.  CMC is weak at 12z today.  0z Euro had band of 1"+ qpf CPA to Northern MD.  At DXR its .8 on the text with 850's -6 to -10, so decent snow growth likely.  My concern remains suppression and a map that will look like today's 12z gfs.  These latitudinal storms have a difficult time throwing snow north as we have seen previously this year.  Opposed to a storm moving north/northeast up the coast where the precip usually spreads further north than modeled.

CMC 12z

Euro 0z

gfs 12z

GFS 6z

GFS 0z

NAm 12z






2-27 lunchtime
GFS holds steady about .7 precip for dxr, more to the south.  Temps at 850 are around -8 in our area which is ideal for maximum snow formation.  Otherwise the instantweather map below is overdone on the northern side of 12+



2-27 morning  Euro on board with large snow storm with over a foot on  the printout.

SUN 18Z 02-MAR   3.5    -3.1    1020      75      93    0.01     558     542    
MON 00Z 03-MAR   1.6    -3.7    1019      87      98    0.01     558     543    
MON 06Z 03-MAR  -0.9    -1.8    1017      95     100    0.18     556     542    
MON 12Z 03-MAR  -2.8    -2.3    1014      91      98    0.21     553     543    
MON 18Z 03-MAR  -3.5    -4.0    1011      88     100    0.49     549     541    
TUE 00Z 04-MAR  -6.6    -7.6    1014      80      98    0.34     544     533    
TUE 06Z 04-MAR -12.4   -10.2    1018      70      46    0.01     540     526 
 
 
 
GFS more cold and further south with 6+
SUN 12Z 02-MAR  -4.5    -4.7    1023      89      94    0.02     554     536    
SUN 18Z 02-MAR  -5.1    -8.0    1026      75      98    0.01     553     533    
MON 00Z 03-MAR  -8.7   -10.0    1029      73      97    0.00     553     531    
MON 06Z 03-MAR -12.2   -11.4    1029      74      92    0.00     552     530    
MON 12Z 03-MAR -11.8   -11.3    1028      80     100    0.01     552     531    
MON 18Z 03-MAR -10.2   -10.3    1024      95     100    0.21     550     532    
TUE 00Z 04-MAR -10.1   -10.2    1021      97      99    0.38     546     530    
TUE 06Z 04-MAR -11.5   -13.1    1022      94     100    0.06     541     525  
 
 
CMC has temps under 850 for entire period for all but CNJ/SNJ and SEPA and also puts out over a 1" qpf with more in CPA.
DGEX is aiming at SNJ for snow jackpot, but still puts out 6+ in our area.



2-26 - CMC and GFS on board for cold, and snow. Euro 0z says 6-12, 12z has warmer 850's.  Difference between the models at 850 is 11 degrees with Euro being 1.7 on Monday 18z.  Tough seeing Euro all by itself on this one, and that its flipped and flopped.  Have to think its a 6-12" event for most inland areas with some ice or mix at the coast. 

2-25 - In watching for the Crazy Euro storm for the 3/1 - 3/2 range, that one fizzled and behind it came a new opportunity.  12z GFS today doesn't really develop that much of a low, so the confidence in the snow map below is low, but does put out a long period of light/moderate snow.  Problem with daytime light snow is that it doesn't accumulate in March - has to be night or dynamically induced.  This looks more like a arctic boundary overrunning situation atm.  But GFS does have DXR and most of CT, HV and NNJ in frozen precip.
0z Euro run on the other hand, develops a low and runs it up the apps, just south of NYC.  Typically that track with arctic air in the area would result in pure snow, but it warms the 850s up except in most extreme NW Subs.  Most of the area is in 3-6 inch, but over a period of time.  Once up to Catskills, Albany, VT, its a 12+ snow.

12z - New euro text shows about 1.2" qpf, with 850's in the -6 to -8 range for most of it.  Should be a foot storm, with the 12z-18z time frame on monday having over 6 inches, so really heavy snow.  Maps not out yet. 





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