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Monday, November 28, 2016

Hello Winter!

12-3  Still nothing solid, but storms are around and so is the cold.  The first chance is early Monday the 5th with some light snow.  Not much expected, maybe a coating, but something to keep an eye on since the moisture is coming from the south and may be underdone.  Then Wed-thurs have two periods of precip, which could be snow or rain.  Nothing heavy Wednesday.  Latest GFS for Thurs has .57 qpf with temps hovering around freezing at 850 and the surface, so we need to keep an eye on that.  Then the 18z GFS has a decent storm for the 12th with 1.3" qpf with 850's below 0 the entire time.

MON 00Z 12-DEC   0.0    -4.5    1021      86      99    0.05     553     537   
MON 06Z 12-DEC   2.1    -0.8    1007      98      99    0.42     547     541   
MON 12Z 12-DEC   1.8    -0.6     993      98      87    0.93     529     536   
12z Euro puts an inch or so down Monday morn, then on and off sprinkles/light snow wed and thurs.  Should be enough to cover the ground.  Then for the 12th its out to sea, mostly, with 2" falling here.  No precip type issues on that one.   0z run looked similar, but closer with the storm on the 12th with maybe 4"  of snow.  No precip type issues on that run either.
WED 06Z 07-DEC   1.7    -1.0    1019      74      92    0.01     557     542   
WED 12Z 07-DEC   1.8    -0.1    1018      80      98    0.01     558     544   
WED 18Z 07-DEC   3.6    -1.0    1018      79      99    0.03     556     541   
THU 00Z 08-DEC   2.5     0.0    1019      93      94    0.08     557     542   
THU 06Z 08-DEC   3.0    -0.3    1017      94      10    0.01     557     543   
THU 12Z 08-DEC   4.0    -0.1    1015      95      10    0.01     556     543   
THU 18Z 08-DEC   5.7    -0.5    1012      97      98    0.12     553     543   
FRI 00Z 09-DEC   3.7    -2.9    1011      97      90    0.05     548     540   

Both models have had a few runs now showing that the winter is starting to lock in. 

12-1 The battle to end fall and start winter is on.  The 5th through 7th have multiple opportunities but models keep fighting.  Looks like it will be cold enough, so any over running moisture that makes it in should start as snow, but how much makes it is a big question.   Then the 8th and 9th a BIG storm moves through the lakes and COLD follows behind it.  We get rain, possibly ending as snow as the front comes through.   Then both GFS and EURO show trailers coming behind bringing some snow.   So its a good time to start following winter weather. 

11-30 evening   12z EPS Control with most of the country covered, 12-18" covering large portion of Northeast

11-30  Today's 0z run is in between the two.

11-29  Todays 12z run a bit less ambitious

11-28  Hello Mr Winter!  Below is the 10 day snow on ground map from the 12z Euro today.  Yes, its just one run and its 10 days out, but its rather impressive.  Almost every state in the Continental US has some snow (LA,MS, AL DE and FL don't).

Saturday, November 5, 2016

Holy boring weather....drought

11/27  On the drought - below is todays 18z gfs run with just under 2" through 11/30 which gets us close to normal.
After that it looks like we will be seeing more activity.   12z run has the following opps
With euro showing 12/5
If you split the difference on the 12/5-6 storm, there is something to watch.

11/23 - looking at some light precip for the 24th to 26th period.  Less than .25". Temps are hovering around freezing at most layers, though recent trends have been to warm the surface.  Nothing of note in the long range either.  Storms appear to want to cut to the lakes, but they do bring some much needed rain.  Below is the EPS control for precip in the next 15 days.  Its all rain, but a noreaster on the 5th is close.
GFS from 6z today is also showing a few inches of rain in the next two weeks.  Mostly from moisture ahead of a cutter on the 30th/1st.
I'd like to get 4" of rain into the ground before it freezes.

11/20 - we did get a cold front through with some gusty winds and .55" of rain overnight.  Cloudy, with flurries and sprinkles throughout the day today.  Looking ahead, still rather boring, though below normal temps for the next few days.  I hesitate to call a pattern change, but in looking forward, temps are more below normal than above.   Keep in mind normal highs for late November are in the mid 40's.  DXR is reporting 2.18" of rain for November so far, or 48%.  Things look a little brighter at the end of the month for some rain, and ultimately a pattern change as storms run at us, with a bit more juice. 

11/15 - todays mini coastal overperfomed bigly. Just over 1" of rain imby.  Monday-Tuesday next week still looking messy - euro only with .2" precip, but cold enough to snow aloft.  GFS 18z showing similar precip and pattern.  However GFS also shows a nice snowstorm on Thanksgiving
12z euro precip

11/13   Mini coastal still on track.  Will get some rain on Tues, but is it .1 or .5"?  Does it really matter? We need 2" by tomorrow to be normal for the month.  GFS has interesting set up for the 21st-23rd, not on Euro.

11/12    Little coastal storm brushes coast per Euro, brings a little rain, but nowhere near what we need.  So far we've had .04 inches of rain for November at Danbury.  Normal is over 4".  This map brings us to the 22nd.
Euro operational
This one goes out to the 27th...even worse.

Euro ensemble control
GFS is only slightly better, still would end the month with less than an inch of rain.
At least it cools off per GFS Ensembles 5 day anomaly

11/9  18z gfs precip to the 25th. 

11/7 - Then there is this.... 5-6 inches of rain in CT.  Mostly from a storm that is still ongoing at hr 240.

vs. the GFS

11/5 Drought continues, some colder air comes in and out.  Still waiting for that cold air to lock in, but models keep pushing it off.  Until we get some storms, its booorrring precip wise and average temp wise.

12z Euro

sources:  Accuweather pro and

12z gfs