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Monday, November 28, 2016

Hello Winter!

12-3  Still nothing solid, but storms are around and so is the cold.  The first chance is early Monday the 5th with some light snow.  Not much expected, maybe a coating, but something to keep an eye on since the moisture is coming from the south and may be underdone.  Then Wed-thurs have two periods of precip, which could be snow or rain.  Nothing heavy Wednesday.  Latest GFS for Thurs has .57 qpf with temps hovering around freezing at 850 and the surface, so we need to keep an eye on that.  Then the 18z GFS has a decent storm for the 12th with 1.3" qpf with 850's below 0 the entire time.

MON 00Z 12-DEC   0.0    -4.5    1021      86      99    0.05     553     537   
MON 06Z 12-DEC   2.1    -0.8    1007      98      99    0.42     547     541   
MON 12Z 12-DEC   1.8    -0.6     993      98      87    0.93     529     536   
12z Euro puts an inch or so down Monday morn, then on and off sprinkles/light snow wed and thurs.  Should be enough to cover the ground.  Then for the 12th its out to sea, mostly, with 2" falling here.  No precip type issues on that one.   0z run looked similar, but closer with the storm on the 12th with maybe 4"  of snow.  No precip type issues on that run either.
WED 06Z 07-DEC   1.7    -1.0    1019      74      92    0.01     557     542   
WED 12Z 07-DEC   1.8    -0.1    1018      80      98    0.01     558     544   
WED 18Z 07-DEC   3.6    -1.0    1018      79      99    0.03     556     541   
THU 00Z 08-DEC   2.5     0.0    1019      93      94    0.08     557     542   
THU 06Z 08-DEC   3.0    -0.3    1017      94      10    0.01     557     543   
THU 12Z 08-DEC   4.0    -0.1    1015      95      10    0.01     556     543   
THU 18Z 08-DEC   5.7    -0.5    1012      97      98    0.12     553     543   
FRI 00Z 09-DEC   3.7    -2.9    1011      97      90    0.05     548     540   

Both models have had a few runs now showing that the winter is starting to lock in. 
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12-1 The battle to end fall and start winter is on.  The 5th through 7th have multiple opportunities but models keep fighting.  Looks like it will be cold enough, so any over running moisture that makes it in should start as snow, but how much makes it is a big question.   Then the 8th and 9th a BIG storm moves through the lakes and COLD follows behind it.  We get rain, possibly ending as snow as the front comes through.   Then both GFS and EURO show trailers coming behind bringing some snow.   So its a good time to start following winter weather. 

11-30 evening   12z EPS Control with most of the country covered, 12-18" covering large portion of Northeast


11-30  Today's 0z run is in between the two.


11-29  Todays 12z run a bit less ambitious


11-28  Hello Mr Winter!  Below is the 10 day snow on ground map from the 12z Euro today.  Yes, its just one run and its 10 days out, but its rather impressive.  Almost every state in the Continental US has some snow (LA,MS, AL DE and FL don't).

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