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Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Weird Euro run

I found this afternoons Euro run disappointing and started to look into it more to see what went wrong. The premise of this storm is that the upper low catches the surface low and the storm explodes.  This has happened on past model runs, really at some time with all the different models for this storm.  What concerns me about the Euro is the reformation of the low where there is heavier precip (likely thunderstorms) is.  This can be 100s of miles further east as those storms shear out (which is also questionable).  To demonstrate - at hr 102 the 988 low is right on the coast.  Thunderstorms are out east and you can see the bend in the isobar indicating formation of a low.

Then at 114 the 988 low above becomes a 992 low and a 984 low develops out of that bend in the isobar.  

Once the storms peter out, then the low is back further west.

What makes this more confounding is that at hour 102, the slp is almost under the upper low (5350 line), with another low over by that convection.

 AT 108, you can see the new low jumped east, outside of the 5450 line

 Then still outside 5350 but just within 5400
 Then finally located where it should be. 


Lows normally don't jump around like that, and once stacked, they usually stay there until they occlude.  This happens all the way from the surface, to the 850 and 700mb layers.   Prevents the storm from venting properly and organizing properly.



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