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Saturday, January 16, 2016

Note on teleconnections

Three major teleconnections to look at in the winter are the PNA, NAO and AO.  A positive PNA typically results in ridging in the west, trough in the east, thus cold here.  Negative NAO typically results in colder than normal and storminess, increased blocking as well.  Negative AO typically results in cold air leaving the poles and heading south, leading to cold.  Here are the teleconnections for today.  Black line is the observed value. 

As you can see, the AO is extremely neg, perhaps near record.  PNA is fairly positive and NAO fairly negative.  Yet today, we had a quick moving storm (not blocked) with rain and it reached 48 degrees at DXR, 13 degrees above normal.Heck even the EPO is barely negative, so you can't blame that either.  Just one of those winters.

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