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Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Winter prediction

For DXR, Dec 1 to Feb 28, temps 1.6 above average, snow for entire season, 35-40 inches. Lots of ice and rain. 14 days with snow. 2 storms over 8".


SW CT WX said...
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SW CT WX said...

Paul at AW backpedaling

I have to laugh sometimes. I have done so many interviews, I have read papers, and also read on the internet some brief news articles. It's amazing what I read and the questions that start off so many of my interviews, "I hear we are going to have another cold and active winter in the Northeast." That is not that we have been portraying here from my long-range team.

We actually have three-month temperature departures just above normal for much of the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. I will admit, that my above-normal area of snow may be too far east, being spooked by the early-season snowstorm. I also have backed off on the extreme lake-effect across the eastern Great Lakes

SW CT WX said...

Henry at AW backpedals:
That means the La Nina is not as strong as last year, and the implications may mean the warmth in the East could continue well through winter. We are planning on updating the winter forecast Dec. 1. I am just concerned that the warmth will last well into January, and looking at the European Monthly, which shows warmth overwhelming much of the central and eastern part of the country, the winter may be very different than last year with a lack of snow and cold. I do believe that snowstorms will occur, but it may be where is snows at 32 degrees that within a day or two, the snow is gone because the warmth comes right back. This is not a clear-cut winter forecast now.

SW CT WX said...

JB at Weatherbell - kinda backpedaling? Was calling for brutal December. From 11/20 tweet:

Mid winter positive PNA is nasty pattern, early winter is not quite as bad but still cold. Jan temps

SW CT WX said...

JB from 11-15 - pic shows NE having -2 to Normal temps for winter

Here is what WeatherBell is Tolling for winter for @RyanMaue and others

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