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Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Irene

8-26 night

18zhwrf has shifted to the immediate coast solution - a 948 low coming of the obx at 6z, 952 at mouth of del bay at 12z and 952 over brooklyn/queens. Again, not much weakening.

18z gfdl is sending irene nw into NC, until right before it hits when it veers near beaufort, and drops from 960 to 956, perhaps tightening as it nears land. Passes over pamlico sound, exits as a 956, next to delmarva at 12z, heads north into Trenton, maintaining 956 by 18z.

0z NAM shifts west (basis for hwrf too) brings track through pamlico, back inland around ACY, up the parkway right over nyc. Keeps its strength too. 974mb. It initializes at 984, drops to 972 as it hits NC. However, winds don't exceed 50kts on that model, even over water, but don't diminish much as it heads north. Note the pressure as I write this is 950.

Regardless of the wind - predictions are for 9 inches or more of rain.

8-26 evening

12 euro puts a 960 low from inland of hatteras, back over water maintains it until cape may. Follows parkway up through nj into hudson valley, reaching our area as a 972 low

GFDL came east to the Del river. HWrf went east hitting twin forks. GFS, NAM still off nj coast into LI. UKMEt up del river like gfdl

None of the models have this weakening (or strenghtening for that matter).

But unless this monster reforms, wrapping itself up along the coast, I am doubtful we get much here with the wind, certainly not hurricane sustained. Rain, however, won't go away. I'd be surprised if we wake up to a hurricane warning. Rapid dissipation flag has been on today on the ATD site, and its been flagged for weakening all day too. You can see the bands of dry air working into the center, effectively killing this.

8-26 - First looks shows NAM is furthest east with landfall on long island. GFS 6z goes right up the nj coast, also hitting LI closer to nyc. Euro shifted east, but still has lp going right up the nj coast, over nyc and over dxr. UKMET takes it up Ches bay, up the Del river. CMC takes it up the coast, but veers east, hits LI and East CT. HWRF takes it over OBX, just off ACY, over New Haven. GFDL is still taking it over DC through East PA. Mid range model consesus is just off OBX, ACY and straight up over LI and into CT.

I am still leaning east, keeping NJ out of major surge and major wind, but its so close and being off by just a little can be devastating. DXR may still see the eye, but it will likely go inland between Bridgeport (BDR) and new haven (NHO). Strength is another problem. As of last night it was really getting its act together, with pressures dropping and eye clearly distinct. But instead, the NHC dropped it to a cat 2. As of this morning, I don't see any strengthening either. So at this point, talk of a cat two hitting LI is over forecasting. Its not the fastest moving storm and its not supposed to pick up speed until it passes, so there is a lot of time for this to weaken as it goes up the coast. Mitigating that are water temps which marginally support maintaining strength at least to ACY. Low Cat one is my call for now, over Nassau cty. I don't expect sustained winds anywhere over 80mph. However, gusts can still get to over 100mph. There will be a lot, 5-10 inches of rain over NJ, NYC and Orange,Westchester.

But as I said, the storm moving 30 miles further west, which is only about the diameter of the 2 eyes, means landfall in ACY and winds extend hundreds of miles out.

8-25 late evening. NWS still has us with just about a direct hit on the metro area. While I still favor a further eastern trend, its a bit unnerving seeing the envelope still being eastern ct and eastern pa. Likewise from Morehead NC to missing OBX. 0z NAM came in with it staying offshore until long island. 18z run takes it up the nj coast and right over nyc. This is worst case scenario for us. 18z gfs hits central long island. So there is a trend east, but its going to have to take another 150 miles at this point for us to avoid heavy rain and trop force winds. Not likely.

12z euro still tracking through nj. gfdl still in eastern pa, but the 18z trended much closer to philly.



8-25 Models shift west - furthest west is GFDL and maybe 12z ukmet bringing it into NC south of OBX, over richmond, dc, between hbg and phl. Eastern side is marked by the hurricane models, most of which still keep it offshore until new england. Prepare, wait for tomorrow afternoon when all players are being sampled.


0z euro has it hitting in mid NC coast, going north over VA beach, inside Ches Bay, up del river, over trenton as a 972 LP, hurricane force winds on the jersey and delmarva coast, with 60+kt winds all through nj, east pa, ct . Rain up to 3 inches east of the track, 5+ over east pa, into central ny state, east nc, east va, all md.

12z nam goes right off the coast from OBX to Central LI/East LI. 6z is similar, but only goes out to Sun afternoon when its a 970 off Cape May

HWRF has storm at 100kt hitting OBX hard, going right along delmarva, up the middle of nj with 70-80kt winds hitting nyc, li by sunday afternoon, heads up hudson valley that evening with trop storm force winds hitting CT, LI, and points east. Winds are only 20kts inland, which isn't likely. LP is 934 just south of Cape May and 936 over Jackson, NJ

GFDL has storm at 110 right before slamming south of OBX, goes up to DC, with 80-90 kt winds in ches bay and along delmarva. as eye rides up east PA, 50-60kt winds hit nj and li coast.

CMC goes from OBX to ACK - almost misses completely. It starts a NE movement once it gets to the GA/FL border latitude. 12z CMC much closer to nj coast and nyc.

GFS - 0z run hits OBX, goes off Delmarva, up into NJ at Cape May, over NYC and West CT. Hits NJ coast as 966 low. 6z is a little east, 12z is further east and weaker at 972, perhaps staying just off coast of nj. Then the 12z has it go over central li and eastern ct with a sharper hook left. All runs have it lanfall in the OBX area. Surface winds aren't at hurricane force, even at the OBX, which is odd. 850mb winds are widespread 75kt+ though.

6z GFS ENS have the storm just off obx going just off the nj coast to suffolk cty and eastern ct. 12z ens about the same perhaps a bit west.

Nogaps takes 980 low just off OBX to Brooklyn/Queens fading to 985 low.
UKMET has 986 low over OBX at 72h then over Vineland at 96hr and central ME at 120. 12z run looks like the gfdl track of into wilmington, richmond, dc (but then at 72 and may be recurving).

8-24 update

12z gfs shifted west a bit. Grazes nc, 8pm sat, moves maybe 50-60 miles off ACY, then the eye clips monauk and heads over RI/MA. LP is around 960-964. Oddly it show the highest winds at 65-70kts (over ocean) with 30-40kt winds over eastern half of nj, most of ct, nyc and li. Some parts of li getting 60kts. Chatam, MA looks to be getting the 65-70kt winds. Not liking this as even at the OBX the winds offshore are not hurricane strength.

More concerning is the Euro, which is taking the storm due north from OBX and running it across NJ, NYC and up the Hudson Valley. sub 960 low.

12z gfdl brings it over the obx and up the coast, east of NYC and up RT from Bridgeport (BDR). It does so as a 928 LP, which doesn't match the winds.

12z hwrf has it just east of obx with 80kts onshore and 90 ots. Goes up across Suffolk cty, into Eastern CT. Cat one hurricane force winds along the coast the entire way up. LP from 930 off OBX to 934 before it hits LI.

All the model tracks remain inside the benchmark.

CMC/GGEM also has it brushing OBX and hitting Eastern LI and Eastern CT.

Models shifting slightly west. Will know more tomorrow as the trough that is supposed to move Irene out is going to enter North America and we get a better grip on its strength and speed.

8-24 model roundup - trending east as mentioned below.

Hurricane models - winds are in kts, sustained. Higher gusts very likely.
GFDL 6z 8-24 run has eye wall just off the obx with max winds of 120kts, sat 2pm. Takes it over the obx weakening to 100-11o kts. Moving just east of the delmarva with top winds off shore of 90-100kts. By 2pm sunday, its in delaware bay with top winds just off ac at 90-100kts. Pressure is at 928 which would either be too low for the winds, or the winds are too low for the pressure. Its over trenton at 8pm with pressure of 932, winds offshore over 70kts, with most winds inland of under ts strength. Moves over high point by 2am monday, with 40-50kt winds hitting CT coast and 60-70kts hitting long island and lake erie. Pressure at 940.

Hwrf from 6z. 2pm sat Storm just off OBX with 100-110kt winds well offshore. OBX in 90kt winds, pressure at 928. 2am Sun 100miles east of delmarva, pressure 928 winds 90-100kts, with no hurricane force winds inland. 2pm sun just south of islip, pressure 932, winds 80-90 kts hitting twin forks of li with 70kts hitting ct coast. By 8pm, its in the berkshires, 944 passing just east of dxr, looks like it goes right between bdr and nho. 60-70kt winds still hitting coast.


FWIW - DGEX takes 960 low from OBX to off acy, montauk, to the west of the cape, over boston.

12z NAM seems to take it just off OBX, headed nne in the last frame. This is a shift from the 6z run which had it passing over or just west of hatteras 2pm on sat.

Euro - 0z takes it right over OBX, off delmarva, over islip-ish, just to the east of Hartford over Ashford by 8pm Sun. Sub 960.

CMC - just nicks the OBX at 966 sat morn, heads ne and passes over Ptown at 2pm Sun, missing li, crushing the cape.

UKMET far west, over wilmington nc sat at 8pm with 990 low. moves off delmarva by about 100 miles by sunday 8pm, too slow, but would miss rest of the way if true.

JMA looks to miss obx but heads it to RI sun morn

oz and 6z gfs grazes obx, looks to hit RI hard, passing just west of the cape, crushing it.

Most other hurricane models are taking it just east of obx over or inside the bm.




8-24

I go on vacation and a cat 3 storm pops up with us in the center of the cone of uncertainty.

The first is worst case for wind as it passes to our west. Although the more inland route should diminish winds to a cat 1 or strong TS. The direct hit scenario on cone 2 is more rain than wind, although we would still see trop storm winds.

I'm not in either camp. My early guess that the eye passes just E of OBX and SE of Cape Cod. We'll watch the models and the cone shift steadily east. Only problem facing us is if the storm moves quicker than currently forecast. Two problems with that - first, it gets here before the trough can push it out. Second, it keeps its strength farther north.