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Saturday, December 31, 2011

December

Per accuweather at the Airport

HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 60
TOTAL PRECIP 5.24
LOWEST TEMPERATURE 13
TOTAL SNOWFALL trace
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 37.1 DEPARTURE FROM NORM +4.9
NORMAL PRECIP 4.16 % OF NORMAL PRECIP 126

Today its in the low fifties, so another +15 degree departure will likely bring this to +5
December 2006 also had +4.9 deviation, and .1 inches of snow. Jan 2007 had temps +4.2 and 1.4 inches of snow, also had a high of 70 on the sixth, but things change mid month when the low of 2 occurred. Feburary following was brutally cold at -7.8, but it was dry with only 40% of precip, 8 inches of snow. March remained cold at -3.7 with 12 inches of snow and normal precip.

So things can change!

Friday, December 23, 2011

Now what...

12-27

Its 53 and pouring out at 8:30pm. Looking beyond New Years eve on the models is pointless. GFS shows a nice trough building in the east. Euro shows the trough dipping in and moving out with return of warmth. CMC looks more like the Euro, with positive tilting trough and on the 4th a noreaster develops, very close to a major snow event. GFS, CMC and Euro below. While the EUro and CMC have a good positioned high, they do not have anything blocking the system, so it doesn't make sense that the storm would remain there for so long and cut off.
But for New Years eve, they all have a clipper coming through, but just light snow, or snow showers, if anything.

12-26

Euro still takes 27/28 storm inland, as does cmc, both show clipper in for light snow around New Years eve. GFS is also inland for the 27/28, but shows a warmer event for New Years. All runs are minor right now for any precip.
12z runs in so far still run inland, with nam starting to show weak clipper for friday with another right behind it. GFS still runs the New Years storm well to our north and while a bit colder, now has no precip with it.
Longer term - Northern jet seems to be starting to take over and get more into the US, so perhaps we will flip in next two weeks.

12-24 - 27-28 storm now looking inland, but euro did bomb out right over us on the 12z run. GFS and nam are weaker, bringing close to us but with too much warm air.

Still no change in nao/ao, but with a positive pna, maybe some cold air. There is a hint of a storm on the 27th-28th, but its just a hint. Current position is off the coast, but these do trend west over time. Only the CMC and GFS has this so far.

Long range models do show cold air in the second week, but thats nothing new.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

12/23 - possible mix or snow

12-23 reality. Temps in the mid 40's, rain.

12-22 - So close...

Almost all models have the 850 line splitting CT, with the NAM still south of CT, but moving north each run. However, the temp profile is not favorable for snow, unless it comes down real hard and draws colder air to the surface. Any precip in the late morn may end as wet snow. So while a sloppy morning commute would not surprise me, it is unlikely. GFS and NAM still have snow on their maps too. 12z Euro now much warmer, has .5" of all rain with 850 at 1c.



Yet the 18z nam comes in even warmer, with very little snow for us, if any. Plus its really warm out, and the system is juicy and I think heading further west than progged. Oh well. Not much support anymore from the models for accumulating snow, just some wet flakes or flurries afterwards. Might as well keep it warm.
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12-21 - with all the focus on sunday's event, friday's event is sneaking up and getting colder each day. All models have some precip falling on friday. So lets look at r/s lines. 540 thicknesses are all north, due to the ground level being warmer. This means either rain, mix, or non accumulating wet snow. Freezing line at 850mb (5,000 ft) looks like the following
Euro - right around I84, clipping sussex county, nj (dxr is actually .1 and 0 for this time frame) - meaning rain for dxr. This is a warmer solution from previous run. Euro ensembles are much colder and give us a good snow storm 3-6 inches, if it doesn't melt.
NAM - 0z has 850 line south of CT, about I80 through nj.
NAM - 6z -colder with line south of LI, Sandy Hook, to Trenton
GFS - 0z - north of CT, doesn't move south until the early afternoon, which is after the precip ends. Ensembles have a rain to snow event, not likely any accum
GFS - 6z, colder with line now about I84, clipping sussex county. Very much like 0z euro Ensembles have a good snow storm. 4"?
JMA - only resolves in 24 hrs, but looks to be warm for the period, with the line crossing south of dxr around 6am. could turn to snow.
CMC - line splits CT in half, gradually lowers through the event, mostly rain though.
SREF is bullish on snow for CT, sussex cty.

Afternoon update:
12z Nam colder with mostly snow now, although no accumulation other than a dusting per its map.
12z GFS - colder, 1-2 inches on its snow map, still starts mix goes to snow, but not too far off from 6z
CMC - line still splits ct, but still mostly rain
18z NAM -all snow 1-3
18z GFS - low comes out Del Bay and S of LI. 850 line still in CT, not far enough s for snow until near the end of the event. .75 qpf forecast. GFS snowmap has several inches, but ground temps are in the mid-upper 30s.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

White Christmas

I've pretty much had a white Christmas since moving to Danbury, despite the odds being about 40%. This year is looking less likely with no true snow storms being progged by the models. Now that we are at 240hrs, I'll start a daily update as to snow around Christmas.

12-23 - towel is being thrown in. Nothing on any model anywhere, but east of BM. JB insists it will happen. Might be the only one.
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18z gfs run

12-22 Yesterdays afternoon runs were a let down. Nothing was showing anywhere, with the Euro - the king - only blowing a storm up well off the coast. Usually storms move further nw with time, until inside 48 hrs, and even then the models can be off by 100 miles. So, with just the sliver of hope, I continue to check.

0z Euro - develops low off NC, phases east of BM, but not by much. No effect
12z Euro - no real shift on the 24 hr - will wait for Accuweather to see what happens in the middle.
0z gfs - sends wave off NC, has Northern Low go through MAine. Nothing.
6z gfs - same as 0z, with southern wave reaching northern low just offshore of Nova Scotia
12z - 0z26th northern low through lakes and ny, southern low off nc, instead of going east or ene, the low heads nne, meets the northern at the BM, snow in Cape Cod
0z UKMET - nothing
12z run - only up to 72 hrs so far, but showing that the n branch dipping down now instead of zonal. hmm
0z CMC - develops weak system east of the benchmark
12z System now develops over BM, with snow brushing Cape Cod, and flurries in SNE
JMA - takes southern stream, develops off NC and goes east of BM. Just noticed it has snow for us for the 22nd.




18z GFS shows SE CT getting brushed by some snow early mon morning. Typically this would shift back a bit further nw. However, with no other model support, or support from its ensembles, its tough to think this will affect the area. But it still is a sliver of hope.






12-21 Chaos continues, Euro backs down a little, attention turns to Friday for any hope of white christmas

0z Euro has a wave now going off the coast of NJ, little or no impact for our area. Upper air looks less amplified than in previous runs, thus pushing out to sea rather than up coast.
0z GFS has nada - actually pushing a warm front with no precip in site
6z GFS - actually has a storm, is more amplified than any past 6-8 runs, and is similar to Euro. Brings low off NC. Is this the solution?
UKMET - nada
JMA - similar to Euro
Nogaps - nada
Dgex - now has storm, but moves it due east off SC
CMC pops storm on Monday, but off the coast

12z runs
GFS -precip gets to delmarva, but bulk goes ene ots, ensembles have no precip at all
CMC - has no precip, until storm forms off coast on monday
Euro - wave goes off NC, meets N Stream wave east of BM and bombs out, nada
Now these could come back, but not looking likely.

12-20 Models waffling, Euro remains steadiest.

0z Euro delays storm until Sun afternoon. 850 line just reaches us, but not before .4" of precip (4-6 inches) falls. Ground temps are still too high too. 1012 off NC/VA at 18z, 0z 60-100 miles east of CM, 6z 100mb over MVY.
0z GFS tries to double barrel low up the apps, transfers off coast to 1004 low over MVY by 12zSun. 0 line at CT/MA border. mostly rain, with some mix to start. Cold front really doesnt make it through.
6z gfs - pushes front through, never develops storm, keeps wave precip well to our south and east.
oz Euro ensembles are faster than the operational and take storm from 1004 of ACY at 18zsun to Boston at 996 by 0z. But at the height (18z) the 0/850 line is near I 80. By that time, there is already .5-.75 qpf fallen.
6z DGEX - nothing. Kinda opposite of yesterday
0z CMC - nothing develops, wave passes just south with flurries in our area
JMA goes east of BM
GFS Ens have snow on Friday, but nothing after until maybe monday.
UKMET has low coming through TN valley, likely rain, but it has something.

Afternoon update: waffling continues
12z Euro - stays steady, although a bit slower, weaker and just a tad nw of the 0z. Printout shows .55 of precip falling with 850 temps below 0, but then they rise barely above. So some snow, perhaps a warm dryslot after. Starting in the early afternoon, heaviest at night.
12z GFS - nada
12z CMC - runs inland, but still east of the apps. Snow to rain, also has it starting 0z Monday.
12z UKMET - loses the L, but still has a wave nearby.
18z gfs - nada, not even a wave.

I am wondering why the GFS breaks down the SE ridge.


12-19 Euro - snow Christmas eve overnight into Christmas Day. Relies on weak southern storm and bombs storm off ACY to ACK from 1004 to 996. GFS, also has snow, but lighter (1-3") and more marginal. CMC puts storm on Christmas night into monday, drags storm west of apps, but does hit us with front band of snow on Christmas night. UKMET at 144 (Christmas eve) shows nothing, nogaps shows nothing. 6z gfs has northern stream snow Christmas eve night, with weaker southern system, thus warming up to rain. 6z DGEX has all out snow storm Christmas Eve night, very similar to Euro except colder. Afternoon update: 12z GFS keeps one storm north, the other south, the one in the north stronger, so warm air comes up for rain. The 12z CMC, instead of west of Apps, is now out to sea.






















12-17 cmc big storm to lakes. Gfs does a coastal on the 24th, but keeps it too warm. Euro keeps storm in n branch on the 24th and passes it to our north, keeps it weak and warm. Euro and gfs show flurries possible afterwards. More later maybe. Interesting that the 12z gfs suppresses the system completely on the 24th after the 22 ne storm goes to our south with rain. Euro takes the first one to the lakes, and never develops more than a wave, which also goes south of us on the 23rd.

12-16 - sensing a storm on Christmas Eve/Day

0z Euro shifts the 12/22 storm over us, with the 850 and 540 line now remains in New England,but as the storm pulls out of NE, a high follows in from the SOUTHWEST! So it warms up, cold front approaches the 24th, stalls. Weak storm develops and slides southeast of NJ, so there is a chance of flurries, at first, but 850 line is north of CT for most of what little precip falls. Climatologically, this makes no sense. End of december storms passing south of us are usually snow or no.

GFS - 0z doesnt really generate a storm, on the 22nd. A weak distrubance through the lakes, keeps it warm. Then a sw in north and south phase right over us on the 24th, but the 850 line is in VT for the bulk of the precip, again, NY and PA could get good snow.
6z develops the 22nd as a clipper, but a little too late. As the Euro, the storm is further south as is the 850 line, but still not south enough to snow here. Front stalls on the 24th, but no storm forms.
12z 22nd storm never forms, sw does push over our area bringing flurries or sprinkles. Front stalls on the 23rd and develops a weak storm which pushes off se of the area. 850 line is through MA, Catskills, Poconos for most of the event, although if the moisture can get in fast enough there could be some front end snow.

Crazy Canadian pushes the 22nd storm over Buffalo, stalls the front (like the euro) develops a storm along the front (weak at first, 996 over NH)). Storm goes from OBX, to RI/MA, NH, ME. So north, which is odd. West PA and NY would see snow, rest maybe some mixed or starting as snow, but a decent rain storm.



12-14 - 240 hrs now showing on Euro and CMC.
Euro has a strong low over Toronto, supporting my assertion that we will have a tornado watch around Christmas. (such assertion being tongue in cheek after Halloween was cancelled due to snow)
CMC has weak coastal storm (1010) right off the coast. 0 line at 850 along I95 and would mean snow.
0z GFS has a weak low coming out of the OH Valley on the 22nd, going too close to us for snow
6z has frontal passage on the 24th, maybe showers or a flurry

12-15 Still nothing exciting - Crazy Canadian has a storm, but no support elswhere or in the pattern
Euro has frontal passage, dry, on the 20th and a 1000mb low S of Long Island on the 22nd. This would normally be a snow event, but the 540 line is in Canada. Front pushes back through on the 24th with flurries and rain/snow showers.
GFS has fropa on the 20th, but the next storm is poorly organized and is split with one part over the lakes and another coming through the TN valley. It eventually forms a 1008 low off Cape Cod on the 22nd, but it too has the 540 line in Canada. Front passes through the 24th, dry.






CMC has no frontal passage in the 20th and its really warm. A storm develops over lakes on the 21st and goes into N New England. On the 22nd, its got a much stronger storm further north with cold air drilling into the NE. At the same time, a clipper is dropping out of Canada into the lakes and another shorwave is crossing TX. The clipper keeps descending into the US, the swave comes NE and they meet off of Cape cod on the 24th. See pic below. All the while the 0line at 850 and 540 line remain SE of the area, resulting in a nice snow storm, near 6 inches.
































Saturday, December 10, 2011

Whats next??

12-12

GFS runs have warmed for any storms between now and then and flow continues mostly from the sw with a brief cold shot every 4-5 days or so.  Euro lost the look that had me excited where the northern and southern were looking like they would phase over VA around the 24th.  Now they remain separate as the timing is off. But there could be a clipper heading down on the 23rd.  CMC has similar look to Euro, although it keeps us closer to normal with temps and the flow of systems is more out of the NW than SW as the GFS has.  It too looks like a clipper could hit prior to the holidays.

12-10 - nothing but storms to the Great Lakes for the Euro
GFS 0z had nothing but rain, cutters and fronts.  Christmas beautiful near 50.
6z was interesting with close calls on the 19th, 20th, 21st
12z had only a storm possibly on the 24th (see below)
CMC just like Euro, only cutters with chances of rain.
Can't even get it cold enough to get some overrunning with the warm fronts!


Monday, December 5, 2011

First "winter" storm post

12-8 Outcome:  2.8 inches of rain fell between 12-6 and 12-8.  We did get a mix of snow overnite as I saw some really big flakes with a temp of 34.  DXR reported snow as well. We did not wake to a snow cover, although other reports from around here did mention that there was a coating overnight.  It may have melted.  Bigger story was the rain and wind.  Wind gusts up to 25MPH were common here at the house and at DXR they were in the low 30's.    Long Island had reports of gusts near hurricane levels. W Milford NJ reported 1 inch. Parts of upstate NY and the Berks got 3-5.  No reports from Litchfield and Taunton didn't put out a snow statement, just rain, with the Hartford area gettting over 3 inches.  Mt Holly had a report of 4 inches in the poconos.  Glad I didn't get to on board with this - some mets had statements like "the areas targeted by the October storm will be targeted by this one" with 9-12". 

12-6 Models all shifted N and W with the low coming over NYC.  All are within the BM which given that its 61 right now, isn't likely producing major snow. There will be some, but I can't tell how much as the low is at NYC and 6 hrs later is on the ME/CAN border.  Cold air will come in, and there is a half inch of precip falling between 42 and 48 hrs, but no idea if all of it falls prior to the cold, or if all of it falls while its cold.  Also suspect is the amount for that time frame, given the position and speed of the storm. 1-3 or would be my best guess, but that may be a little aggressive.  Even with the speed of the system, noting that the GFS and NAM each put well over 1.5 qpf down.  Seems like a lot, but then again its pretty juicy outside.

12-5



It remains a long shot based on the pattern we are in, but if the trailing upper low in the sw times correctly (after frontal passage) and comes up far enough north (benchmark), we could get snow on the 7th into the 8th.



CMC - 0z is running west of us. 12z runs se of BM.

Euro - 0z hits the BM, but its too warm at first, changes to snow around 6z on thurs. 2-4 inches

12z Euro goes a little crazy -can only see what is below at this point.

GFS -0z nada. 6z weak and well out to sea. 12z closer to BM, still weak, snow DC to ACY.

NAM - 0z run too slow - doesnt get it to us and looks like its trying to go west and warm up

6z puts low off ACY Thurs Afternoon with 2-3 snow possible.

12znam speeds up to the rest of the models, puts low just inside BM with 3-6 snow possible.

Usually the NAM runs northwest of the other models, but having the Euro backing it makes me rethink the possibilities.









Officially the wettest year in Danbury

I like Bill's winter outlook too...

DANBURY -- In 2011, Connecticut did not get a plague of locusts or a rain of toads. Lions did not whelp in the streets.
But, meteorologically speaking, nearly everything else was on the platter -- historic snowfalls, tropical storms and flooding that tore roads apart.
And now, with nearly a month to go, 2011 has set another mark -- it's the wettest year on record for Danbury.
"The glass half-full side of this is that nobody's well went dry,'' said Bill Jacquemin, chief meteorologist with the Connecticut Weather Center in Danbury.
According to Weather Underground, Bridgeport, as recorded at Sikorsky Airport, has received 54.18 inches of precipitation in 2011 so far, far higher than the average of 39.89 inches.
Jacquemin said that by the end of November, Danbury had received 72.7 inches of precipitation this year. With most of December still to go, that's more than an inch over the previous record year of 71.49 inches of precipitation that fell in 1983. It's more than 20 inches higher than the city's average annual precipitation of 49.3 inches.
What has been interesting about 2011, Jacquemin said, was that by and large, it has been wet all through the year. The only exception was in July, when only 1.43 inches of rain fell in the Danbury area.
Jacquemin said he believes that climate change is the culprit here. Because the Earth's atmosphere is warming, he said, more moisture gets into the air.
As a result, Jacquemin said, the state will see more severe storms in the years to come.
"We're going to have to keep saying `I've never seen a storm like this,' '' he said. "It's happening globally and nationally.''
But Jacquemin said that because November has been relatively warm and dry, he thinks that mild pattern will prevail. Unlike the past winter -- when it snowed a lot in December and January, much less in February and March -- Jacquemin doesn't expect winter to kick in until later.
"It will be a flip-flop of last year,'' he said.Read more: http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Living-through-Danbury-s-wettest-year-2343546.php#ixzz1fgBboZPP