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Friday, December 23, 2011

Now what...

12-27

Its 53 and pouring out at 8:30pm. Looking beyond New Years eve on the models is pointless. GFS shows a nice trough building in the east. Euro shows the trough dipping in and moving out with return of warmth. CMC looks more like the Euro, with positive tilting trough and on the 4th a noreaster develops, very close to a major snow event. GFS, CMC and Euro below. While the EUro and CMC have a good positioned high, they do not have anything blocking the system, so it doesn't make sense that the storm would remain there for so long and cut off.
But for New Years eve, they all have a clipper coming through, but just light snow, or snow showers, if anything.

12-26

Euro still takes 27/28 storm inland, as does cmc, both show clipper in for light snow around New Years eve. GFS is also inland for the 27/28, but shows a warmer event for New Years. All runs are minor right now for any precip.
12z runs in so far still run inland, with nam starting to show weak clipper for friday with another right behind it. GFS still runs the New Years storm well to our north and while a bit colder, now has no precip with it.
Longer term - Northern jet seems to be starting to take over and get more into the US, so perhaps we will flip in next two weeks.

12-24 - 27-28 storm now looking inland, but euro did bomb out right over us on the 12z run. GFS and nam are weaker, bringing close to us but with too much warm air.

Still no change in nao/ao, but with a positive pna, maybe some cold air. There is a hint of a storm on the 27th-28th, but its just a hint. Current position is off the coast, but these do trend west over time. Only the CMC and GFS has this so far.

Long range models do show cold air in the second week, but thats nothing new.

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