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Monday, July 30, 2012

Where are the tropical systems

Not much to post on in July. Dry saharan air is keeping the waves off Africa from developing. There is also a good amount of sheer as well. Now in the season is when to look for longer running storms, and we finally have one on the GFS, Euro and CMC. The CMC develops fully and brings it NW just short of the islands. The GFS develops a weaker storm, bringing due west and the Euro keeps it a wave moving west into the Caribbean. NHC is on this with a 20% chance of development. Sheer in the area is currently light to moderate and the dust is further north, so there is a pretty good chance of development.

Monday, July 2, 2012

Colder than normal!

For the first time since last August, the monthly average temp was noticably below normal. June ended at -3.1 at DXR. While April was a -.6, it did not in my mind sufficiently break the trend of warmer temps. We also received near normal rainfall amounts for June, which is also indicating a potential for a more back and forth normal type of pattern as opposed to the cold pattern in 2010-11 which flipped warm in Sept 11.

Other item of note - yesterday was the hottest I can remember at the shore. Even surrounded by water, the temps made it into the mid 90's, until at least 7pm. A sea breeze briefly developed along the beach in the late morning, but never made it past the dunes. Thankfully it was a dry (er) heat. The ocean temps had to be around 70-72 as we could just walk in without flinching and the Accuweather pro tropical site has the water temp anomoly off the shore at +5c. Car was registering 112-116F while idiling on the pavement.