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Thursday, December 31, 2015

Jan 10-12

1-12   Snow squall dusted the ground tonite

1-8 Still west, no changes.  There might be some frozen, lite, precip at the onset Sat morning.  The 13th still looks good on Euro and GFS for an inch or less. 

1-7  Still west.  Euro and GFS are looking at a clipper type, or even just an UL disturbance for the 13th which may give us our first true dusting-2".  A storm develops off shore from that arctic blast coming in which should be watched, but should stay offshore, except for the Cape and Maine. 
GFS surface
Euro upper level

1-6  All major models, Euro, GFS, Canadian, UKMET and NAVGEM have this storm to our west.  Even NAVGEM which typically has an east bias is over NYC.  Perhaps the idea of a double barrel low or a secondary forming comes back into play, but the main storm, which had devolved to a 1000mb low over the lakes, is now down to 988 on the gfs and 996 on the Euro.

Watch out for snow showers/squalls as the next blast of cold air comes in, along with some upper level disturbances.  These may be during this time period, but are unrelated to the storm being watched.  

1-5 afternoon

12z Euro back on board with the storm.  Has it to our west, but its there again.  goes from 1000mb over VA to 982 over Maine.  CMC is back on board as well pushing its storm from this morning a little further east, but still rain.  Ukie moves a bit east too.  Can't tell temps that far out though.

1-5  Not much improvement so far today. 

0z GFS takes weak LP from OK to Chicago on the 9th, with warm front moving over our area.  850s well to our north.  Weak secondary forms late on the 9th but its way too warm aloft. Cold front moves through on the 10th.   Nothing follows until the 18th which goes well to our south.

6z GFS looks similar to 0z, but does have the trailer on the 12th and another on the 13th way off shore.  I like it when the GFS is offshore this far out, but I don't see anything to bring it back west at this point.  Some general snow showers on the 18th, but that's it for really any precip.

12z GFS  more organized secondary forming off the coast on the 9th.  But the warm and cold fronts are moisture starved.  This run seems a bit cooler, but don't have all the data in for it yet. 

0z Euro  has first storm going up through the lakes like the GFS, but really limited warm front.  Keeps it messy (rainy/foggy) in our area through the 9th and 10th.  Then the second storm forms much further north than the original gulf formation.  It does tap the GOM for moisture and heads up over Erie PA.  So heavy rain on the 10th.  There's some cold air behind it, but just snow showers.  EPS out to 15 days shows more sustained cold after the 10th, with mostly normal to below normal temps, but no organized systems.

CMC still has a storm moving over us, very warm though.
JMA has nothing interesting to add.

0z UKMET has a 988 low heading over us from the Gulf. It'd be rain, but its not like the other models which went from 970 lows to 1012 lows.

1-4  Nice snow squalls in Eastern CT and RI, ocean effect on the Cape, flurries on the way to work and 23 at noon.  Winter finally made it.  Nothing trending well for the upcoming storm.

Model summary as of 1:30pm
0z GFS LP heads to the lakes on the 9th, with a "warm" front from that storm moving over us. The 850 line is through northern CT at that time and a secondary is trying to form.  540 thickness shows snow.  Surface temps above freezing though, as is the 925mb 0 line, so if it snows, its melting and very wet.  The follow up storm for the 11th goes out to sea.

6z GFS LP heads up to the lakes on the 9th with only hints at a secondary forming on the coast. Follow up storm for the 11th heads out to sea, never gets its act together.

12zGFS  LP heads to lakes on the 9th.. secondary forms off coast, with 850 line through CT and then in MA.  Follow up storm forms over AL now (the LP over the lakes no longer lingers and moves on out) and heads quickly up the Apps to NYC by 6z the 11th.  850 line runs through MA at first.  Albany should get some good snow, none in our area though. 
12z GFS for the 11th
0z Euro Sends 1008 LP to the lakes with warm front over us on the 9th.  Could see some snow depending on the timing, but not looking likely per this run.  Follow up storm on the 11th heads towards Pittsburgh putting us in the warm sector with temps at 850mb near 10C.   Whats out on the 12Z Euro so far looks even less optimistic.

I tend to not like when the Euro is west of the GFS, though its still 7 days out. 
FWIW - 12z Canadian operational is similar to the Euro, though it forms a secondary storm on the 11th right over NYC to ME.  But its too late by then.   Contrasted with the 0z run which had a coastal
just inside the benchmark.  Japanese model went from a coastal storm on the 1-3 run to a GL storm today as well. 
1-3  Afternoon 12z Euro now takes the storm just to the west of us at 984mb resulting in rain, but there is another for the 15th.

12z GFS goes with a two low solution, one over KS one over the gulf on the 7th.  By the 9th, the storm is still only over IA/MO but the gulf one is coming up the coast.  By the 10th the orig low is over WI and the other one is off NJ with a mixed bag.  You can also see the next one in the gulf.
After that the one in the gulf on the 10th rides up off obx by the 11th and misses just to our east.

1/3  Morning runs - very interesting, but not a lot of agreement between Euro ens control and operational, nor the 0z and 6z GFS.  If you like snow, 0z Euro operational and 0z GFS are for you.

EPS showing this as a cutter to the lakes on the ninth.  It also shows another round of really cold air afterwards, and a weak storm hitting us on the 15th with snow before it warms up again to slightly above seasonable temps.  Euro operational shows a nice looking coastal storm in the pocket on the 11th after the cutter to the lakes on the 9th. The storm is from energy entering So Cal on the 7th and swinging through Mexico/Texas and into the gulf, then up the coast. It seems warm on the surface map, but the 850 temps are well below 0c.  Snow map showing 1-3 for NYC north.

0z GFS run looks facinating.  Has the storm blocked over the lakes with a secondary forming (unlike the 6z run) just in time for inland sections potentially.  Then like the Euro, it rotates the energy from So Cal through Mexico and up the coast.  This results in two snow opportunities, but both are a close call with temps.  Also featured is an inverted trough between the two, then a 968 low over the benchmark assaulting us with snow and wind.

round one with secondary storm forming

inverted trough makes snow linger, note storm in gulf.

major southern new england/long island storm
snow map 0z gfs

6z GFS brings a storm from IA to the lakes, slowly from the 8th to the 10th. It doesn't make much of the southern system as the Euro does, but does try to form a secondary storm a little bit to late for us. The energy from the second storm on the 11th is there, but it just doesn't develop it as the Euro or 0z gfs does.

1/2 - Time frame moving up a little as storm develops in front of the one I've been watching. 

0z GFS on 1/9 has 2 lows, 1 over Milwaukee and 1 east of OBX.  540 line is essentially I-90
On 1/11 there is a 980 low over Albany.  Neither bring us snow.

12z GFS for 1/9 has a 996 low just south of the 40/70 benchmark, but the 540 line runs from Montreal to Detroit.  Very warm, and odd.
 1/11 has  that storm going out to sea.   Next chance on 1/14 with a 1008 low south of LI with the 540 line south of Cape May.

0z Euro has two lows - one over Chicago and one over Jax on the ninth. Neither affect us in an organized fashion.
12z Euro has two lows - one over Milwaukee and VA, going to NYC on 1/9.  No feature for the 11th.

Both models show cold, but the EPS and GFS don't make it last. Here is what mid Jan looks like at 850.
Euro eps 1-17
GFS 1-18

1/1  Time frame still looking good for some activity.   European showing a storm on both EPS and at hr 240 on the operational model.  However,its mild, despite a track to the south.  This bears watching - either to correct the track, or the warmth.  January storms to our south don't result in rain, and the EPS track/precip type scenario makes more sense.  After a brief below normal day 4-5th, it warms back up before the 11th.  After the 11th a wider, deeper trough envelops most of the country.  There could be a good storm around the 16th-17th when that trough lifts out.



 6z GFS takes a 1008 poorly organized low from TX, MO to OH before it reforms to our south offshore with mixed bag - again its not cold enough for that track.  But... a second storm ejects from the Gulf, rides up the Apps to offshore of NJ and just inside the BM on the 12th.  That is a fun one to watch.  There should be just enough cold air for our first good 6+ inch snow, at least inland. 
6z gfs mixed bag, snow inland
0z gfs has the weak 1008 sliding out beneath us, just a little snow on the 10th, if anything.  But the trailer turns into ta 992 low over Del bay and goes off SNJ. 

0z gfs snow north of Trenton
12z  GFS cruelly shunts all storms to our south!
0z CMC stays mostly warm with an unorganized system moving through on the 10th with rain.
12/31 -  I don't like posting forecasts not within hr 240 (10 days) since they almost never pan out, but the lack of activity is driving me nuts.  The pattern is changing, and there should be some swings of cold and warmth, but no 55+ degree days or below 0 temps for the next two-three weeks.  Overall, probably within a few degrees of normal, perhaps a bit below as we end January.

The Jan 10-12 time period has been interesting over the last few days with a storm consistently approaching or hitting during those days. Euro EPS and GFS have been showing it over the last few runs, albeit in different positions.  Here are some graphics from today
0z gfs

6z gfs

EPS Control 0z

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

End of year first snowfall?

12-29  We had an inch of crust on the deck.  2.5" in the pint glass left outside.  There was some snow overnight which was observed by another local weather fan, and you could see it in the glass actually.

12-28  GFS never cools the 800mb layer under freezing, Euro moves warm air now to 6z.  Result, we should start as snow - if it comes down hard enough, there will be some evaporational cooling to cool that 800mb-700mb layer.  However, the ground also is not frozen, so a lot of melting is possible. After what should be a short burst of snow, if at all, more prolonged sleet.  By 7am just rain for most of CT, lower hudson valley, and other places that started as snow/sleet.   Maybe Hartford on north gets an inch, but tough to measure with the sleet there as well.  No other snow progged by the Euro EPS or GFS for the next 16 days, other than potentially some flurries.  

12-27  Euro still has this nose of warmth at 800-700mb level which may prevent much snow and result in more of an ice/sleet event.  Tues 0z is the last time that level is below 0c, and the precip falls from 6z-18z.  850's support frozen until 14z or so then warm to +9c. Euro has .32 as frozen, .39 as wet.  Surface temps mostly above freezing, so its sleet most likely to rain.

GFS is a bit trickier to forecast with .15 falling as frozen.  Then from 6z to 12z the 850 temps go from -4 to 2 with  .61 falling at during that time, then another .24 falling after.  750 temps look above 0 the entire time as well, with 800 temps only at -1 at 6z.  Again, signalling a more sleet time scenario.

Here are major model snow maps for the "event" from their 12z runs.
Euro 12z

GFS 12z

NAM 12z

12-24 - Brief update.  Euro and GFS still on board with 3-5 inches for most areas north of I80.  However, on the 12z Euro, there is a nose of warmth at the 700mb level which could cause more ice pellets than snow, as that warmth precedes the .53" qpf  progged to fall between 7 am an 1pm.   12z GFS did not have this feature. 

12//23  Evening update.  Euro showing front end snow 3-6 inches most of CT, Hudson Valley with 1-3 Northern NJ/NE PA and 6+ Mass on north.  Snow mostly accumulates 12z 12/29 to 18z with temps 29-32.  Temps are interesting -on the 27th, the high is 65-70 in parts of ct with 70-75 in parts of NJ.  Temps only get below freezing somewhere around 6z on the 29th and stay below until 21z or so.  Then by the 31st its back to near 50.
Euro 12z snow

Euro temps 12-28 0z

Hard to believe this but there is a chance of accumulating snow Mon-Wed as a system moves up to our west.  Its a warm front snow, so its snow to rain.  GFS is all over it.  Euro is much less, though still accumulating.  Here are two versions of the same GFS forecast - one software assumes all snow, the other factors in other frozen precip.  Plus the 6z gfs off Accupro and 0z Euro The latter makes sense as there will be cold air damming with warm air aloft, transitioning to snow, sleet, freezing rain then rain. Of course surface temps need to cooperate, which I'm a little skeptical of right now.  Plenty of time to change that attitude.

Insane map

Sane Map

Between the two - gfs 6z

Euro 0z

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Christmas is coming

Note at top:   Normal high for Christmas at Danbury is 38, low 22.  For transparency, I'm rooting for the 70 degree sunny Christmas this year since we are hosting.

12-25  Warm sunny day until late in afternoon when it cooled into the 50's and the heater had to be lit.

12-24 Got to 67 here in the hollow.  Danbury recorded a 69, but could have gotten to 70 between hours.  Most areas to our S and W made it to the 70 degree mark as it cleared out faster.  It remained soggy and overcast most of the day here. Temperature deviation for the day, assuming we don't drop to under 56 by midnight, was +33.  

12-20  no new posts on Christmas as it remans as forecast on the 15th.  Some subtle differences between GFS and Euro when it comes to heights, but precip should clear out with only a chance of scattered showers in the afternoon.  Highs probably at midnight, in the 60s with daytime highs in the 50s.   GFS has 70s in S NJ for the 24th, 60s elsewhere with 50's for most of the area on the 25th. Euro is a bit warmer with some areas in CT in the 60s at 7pm on the 25th.

Just for kicks, here is the snow map for 7pm 12/25.  Yes, those are snow amounts in the 130 inch range out west.

Euro snow on ground  12-25

12-15 - Euro deterministic in range.  0z and 12z runs have rain moving through the 23rd into part of the 24th. Clear on the 25th.  Temps in the 60s on the 24th.  Likely the same on the 25th, but only out until 12z (7am) which has it in the 50s.

0Z gfs has rain moving through the 24th, clear on Christmas.  Cold front coming through with temps in the 60's to start, into the 50s in the afternoon.  Much like today actually. 12z similar, 70s in NJ at 7am.

12-14 12z eps still showing nasty wet storm.  Temps on the 24th nearing 70 and morning temps in the 60s for Christmas.   0z run brought the storm to our west with just a little rain.

0z gfs has the storm well to our west, with temps 65 to 70.   12z has cold front coming in from low to our NW in the afternoon.  12z temps 65-70.

At this point it looks rather warm and damp....

12-13 evening
EPS has nasty wet storm.  GFS is amazingly warm. High temps 12-24 and 12-25 in the 60's.

12-13  EPS (Euro ens control) has a warm front moving through, associated with a 984 low over Iowa.  Temps in the 50's with rain, mostly in the morn/early afternoon.  Temps on the 26th in the 60's and 70s in the tristate.
6z gfs is fair, mid 40s.  0z gfs has massive 972 low passing to our west on the 26th-27th with the 25th starting ok, but going downhill. Temps in the 40's on the 25th but into the 60's on the 26th.

12-12 - Eur ens control still showing fair and seasonable. No accumulating snow prior. 0z GFS  has a 996 low moving just to our NW with rain on 12-24, but fair and seasonable on Christmas. 12z GFS has frontal passage on the 23rd, chilly on the 24th, nice on the 25th -temps 45ish. 12z EPS control is 45ish as well, but with southwest winds and looks like drizzle. As of today, temps for the month of Dec are +7.2  Heating degree days are 271 of a normal of 1016 for season. Accuweather forecast for 12-25 is Cloudy, 51. 

12-11 Eur ens with a lakes cutter bringing in warm rain on Christmas/Christmas Eve.
12z gfs had front coming through 23rd, rain.  Then fair and mild on Christmas

Euro ens showing a liklihood of seasonal conditions, perhaps a little warmer than normal for Christmas Eve. Upper levels are mostly zonal with the only true storm entering CA.
0z GFS on the other hand has a strong storm just to our west, drowning us with a cold rain
  Note the gfs temps for Christmas eve in the 60's by Toms River
The 6z GFS run is full of activity - storm up the coast on the 19th, heavy rain for most, snow west of CPA and Upstate NY.  Another up the coast, combining with one over the lakes, which gives us heavy rain, with snow again in CPA and from the finger lakes west. Some snow perhaps on the back end as it bombs from 1000mb to 980mb.  Then Christmas night, a storm runs from the plains to DC which is blocked and heads to our west.  But, the cold front passes through and most of the NE will get some snow after it rains.  That run looks odd though.

12-8  Christmas time is now in the long range of the Euro control and the GFS.  Todays run of the euro control looks very warm on the 23rd.  Likely less than 5% of the country being covered by the 0 at 850mb line. 
0z Euro EPS

0z GFS 12-8

12z gfs 12-8
But a 978 LP moving to our west (see 850 low above) brings in some mood snow.