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Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Christmas is coming

Note at top:   Normal high for Christmas at Danbury is 38, low 22.  For transparency, I'm rooting for the 70 degree sunny Christmas this year since we are hosting.

12-25  Warm sunny day until late in afternoon when it cooled into the 50's and the heater had to be lit.

12-24 Got to 67 here in the hollow.  Danbury recorded a 69, but could have gotten to 70 between hours.  Most areas to our S and W made it to the 70 degree mark as it cleared out faster.  It remained soggy and overcast most of the day here. Temperature deviation for the day, assuming we don't drop to under 56 by midnight, was +33.  

12-20  no new posts on Christmas as it remans as forecast on the 15th.  Some subtle differences between GFS and Euro when it comes to heights, but precip should clear out with only a chance of scattered showers in the afternoon.  Highs probably at midnight, in the 60s with daytime highs in the 50s.   GFS has 70s in S NJ for the 24th, 60s elsewhere with 50's for most of the area on the 25th. Euro is a bit warmer with some areas in CT in the 60s at 7pm on the 25th.

Just for kicks, here is the snow map for 7pm 12/25.  Yes, those are snow amounts in the 130 inch range out west.

Euro snow on ground  12-25

12-15 - Euro deterministic in range.  0z and 12z runs have rain moving through the 23rd into part of the 24th. Clear on the 25th.  Temps in the 60s on the 24th.  Likely the same on the 25th, but only out until 12z (7am) which has it in the 50s.

0Z gfs has rain moving through the 24th, clear on Christmas.  Cold front coming through with temps in the 60's to start, into the 50s in the afternoon.  Much like today actually. 12z similar, 70s in NJ at 7am.

12-14 12z eps still showing nasty wet storm.  Temps on the 24th nearing 70 and morning temps in the 60s for Christmas.   0z run brought the storm to our west with just a little rain.

0z gfs has the storm well to our west, with temps 65 to 70.   12z has cold front coming in from low to our NW in the afternoon.  12z temps 65-70.

At this point it looks rather warm and damp....

12-13 evening
EPS has nasty wet storm.  GFS is amazingly warm. High temps 12-24 and 12-25 in the 60's.

12-13  EPS (Euro ens control) has a warm front moving through, associated with a 984 low over Iowa.  Temps in the 50's with rain, mostly in the morn/early afternoon.  Temps on the 26th in the 60's and 70s in the tristate.
6z gfs is fair, mid 40s.  0z gfs has massive 972 low passing to our west on the 26th-27th with the 25th starting ok, but going downhill. Temps in the 40's on the 25th but into the 60's on the 26th.

12-12 - Eur ens control still showing fair and seasonable. No accumulating snow prior. 0z GFS  has a 996 low moving just to our NW with rain on 12-24, but fair and seasonable on Christmas. 12z GFS has frontal passage on the 23rd, chilly on the 24th, nice on the 25th -temps 45ish. 12z EPS control is 45ish as well, but with southwest winds and looks like drizzle. As of today, temps for the month of Dec are +7.2  Heating degree days are 271 of a normal of 1016 for season. Accuweather forecast for 12-25 is Cloudy, 51. 

12-11 Eur ens with a lakes cutter bringing in warm rain on Christmas/Christmas Eve.
12z gfs had front coming through 23rd, rain.  Then fair and mild on Christmas

Euro ens showing a liklihood of seasonal conditions, perhaps a little warmer than normal for Christmas Eve. Upper levels are mostly zonal with the only true storm entering CA.
0z GFS on the other hand has a strong storm just to our west, drowning us with a cold rain
  Note the gfs temps for Christmas eve in the 60's by Toms River
The 6z GFS run is full of activity - storm up the coast on the 19th, heavy rain for most, snow west of CPA and Upstate NY.  Another up the coast, combining with one over the lakes, which gives us heavy rain, with snow again in CPA and from the finger lakes west. Some snow perhaps on the back end as it bombs from 1000mb to 980mb.  Then Christmas night, a storm runs from the plains to DC which is blocked and heads to our west.  But, the cold front passes through and most of the NE will get some snow after it rains.  That run looks odd though.

12-8  Christmas time is now in the long range of the Euro control and the GFS.  Todays run of the euro control looks very warm on the 23rd.  Likely less than 5% of the country being covered by the 0 at 850mb line. 
0z Euro EPS

0z GFS 12-8

12z gfs 12-8
But a 978 LP moving to our west (see 850 low above) brings in some mood snow.

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