2-20 late evening. 0z Nam and 0z Gfs are all snow events now, with 850s below 0 the entire time and surface temps around 33f at the highest. Nam has .75 QPF, gfs has .52. 4-6 is a good call.
2-20 No further trend south. We should be getting 3-6" on a front end thump, if not a little more. 850 temps on all but the GFS support snow. Problem is surface temps get above freezing near the end of the event. Do we trust models with a deep snowpack? They are only a degree or two above freezing, but also at 925. The 925mb temp (2k feet) is more reliable with a snowpack, so while 850 and 1000-500 thickness supports a 100% snow event for all but the GFS, the warm air at 925 should turn most of CT, NNJ, Hudson Valley (south of Newburgh) to some rain. Below are snow maps for the NE - note the GFS rapidly melts all the snow in the next few frames after the one shown.
2-19 afternoon - Euro shifts further south, keeps most of tristate in snow. 3-6". Do the others follow? How much further south will this trend?
and as a teaser - here's whats happening on the 25th - double digit snow!
2-19 Back from vacation
The GFS/Euro and Nam shifted south with the latest, as they no longer deepen the slp to our west and instead shear it out. This would be usual for the GFS, which is why it trends to go nw in time, but with NAM and Euro, I think the current air mass, and the next one, are just too strong to push the storm into Detroit. So right now, we are again, on the r/s line, but again, should be a couple inches down, with some freezing drizzle after the 850's warm. That is if the 850's even warm, which the NAM and Euro are struggling with for Danbury. GFS still blows the 850 to the MA border, but after the bulk of precip passes. Areas south have less snow, more rain of course.