White, wet or green Christmas

12-23
Every model showing snow now. Dusting to 2".  Euro and ICON have the least amounts.

GFS

Canadian Global

Canadian Regional

Canadian Hi Res

NAM

NAM hi Res

German ICON

Euro

12-22  Still a good chance for light snow.  Actually, it should snow, just not sure if its flurries, snow showers or more sustained.  Depends how much moisture makes it over the Appalachians.  Nothing to be worked up over, just mood flakes.  The 2" areas are in blue. 

NAM

Euro

GFS

12-20  There's a shortwave disturbance that is out there on the Euro for the 12-24 to 12-26 period.  Brings a dusting to an inch .

 FV3 has it too

12-15  And just like that, the snow opportunities disappear.  That storm on the 21st really goes bonkers on the GFS and brings  2+" of rain.

There is a following clipper that drops down behind it, but its very light. Could provide mood snow for Christmas Day, but nothing worse at this point.

FV3 has the 12-21 storm further east and weaker, but the clipper behind completely falls apart.

Euro lacks the clipper altogether.

6z navgem has an interesting solution - keep the southern and northern stream separate, and run the storm in the gulf up the seaboard like a miller a type storm.  Weaker storm, but keeps the warm air from coming up.  But there isn't a lot of cold air to work with either.

So this mornings update is a green Christmas, possible with mood flakes.





12-13
With Christmas coming into long range on the GFS, FV3 and EPS, will there be snow on the ground, in the air, rain or just green?

Today's FV3 did not disappoint with multiple chances at moderate snow.

EPS from 0z today also looks good with a good size storm on Christmas day

GFS has a big storm as well.  The 0z early on the 24th, 6z run late on the 24th into 25th.

We are due for a big storm.  Haven't had a storm with over 1" of precip from a storm in one day since Nov 2.

December....where's the snow.

 12-11 GFS and NAVGEM are following suit with sliding the storm on the 14th, which was originally going to the lakes, now to our south.  We may get a feature dropping a dusting to an inch as trough slips in briefly.

Euro doesn't have this feature and instead develops the upper low into a surface low and sends out to sea (GFS does this as well, just faster.) Note how warm the Euro is.

12-9  The storm below stayed to the south.  Another storm is progged to go to the lakes on the 14th.  With a few other chances between now and the 25th.  The problem is its warm and they want to go to our west.

 The euro eps and operational  have a different solution for 12-14 timeframe

For the 14th-16th, the GFS ensembles are coming in closer to the NE, as is the FV3.  But too warm for snow.

12-4

We are coming out of a cold and stormy pattern in November and December looks a bit warmer and tamer, at least until the last week.  Currently watching a storm from the 9-11th time frame that looks to be headed to the south of CT, perhaps scraping coastal areas with some light accumulation.

 In the longer range, the EPS monthly has a storm up the EC around Christmas.