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Sunday, February 15, 2009

Is thursday 2/18 rain?

Without any real cold air around, this one looks to be mostly rain for CT. The models are not in alignment:
GFS - furthest south with low over Central NE
Euro - Takes up through the lakes
UKMet - takes low through vt,nh
Canadian - up st lawrence
GFS ens still have low just south, with a 996 just over nj
Temps look to be in the 30's to start, so it does not look like there will even be much icing.

There is still time to shift - lets see around 84-72 hrs. But current models have nothing that would indicate a shift south.

2/17 model update. Above are the pix from E-wall Penn State. Note the 540 thickness lines and 0deg 850 are below the low. Normally they would extend eastward from the top of the circle surrounding the L . This still is strange, but consistent.


SW CT WX said...

GFS 0z and 6z have snow to start in ct, with 540 line at mass border later. That line seems too far south considering low going through east lakes
Euro 0z has low in oh valley, going ne through cent ny to north new eng. Again 540 and 850 lines are looking too far south leading to snow to start
Can has 540 line over ct, but a slower solution bringing mostly snow to CT with some mix of rain. Has same starting time, but extended period of snow . Trick with CAN is a secondary forming
UKMet blasts through lakes with a normal looking 540 line
NAm has probably the best solution - Low tracking through oh, pa and just to the northwest of ct, with normal 540 line going up to vt. 6z run secondaries off of cape cod lowering the 540 line overall
Summary - with all models tracking nw of ct, hard to understand how there is not mostly rain since temps are not very cold - NAM + gfs in 30's

SW CT WX said...

18z gfs and 0z nam continue with a misplaced 540 line, so either its real cold aloft, or somethings not right.

Looks like we could get a few inches before turning to rain. NAM output still around an inch, r/s line northern ct. gfs r/s in mass

SW CT WX said...

2/17 still keeping the title of this post.
Euro - trending south and colder, r/s line Mass border
CAN - trending south and colder
GFS - 0z was colder, 6z reverted north with r/s line into vt, which looks correct
NAM - also colder with r/s line in latest run keeping NW corner of CT all snow. However, surface temps still in 30s
GFS Ensemble has same low placement (N. NE) as the rest, but the 540 line where it should be, in VT.
UKMEt still blasting into lakes with 540 line too south.

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