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Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Early spring?

2-25  DXR official highs were 65 on Thurs, 70 on Fri and 62 today. We have a strong LLJ creating possible tornadoes with this line going through.



 From the 4pmUpton AFD
Need to check the calendar. I can`t recall the last time I`ve
seen a line of storms extend from Quebec south to North
Carolina in February with nearly 2000 CG in the past hour.
Impressive to say the least.

For the record, Burlington VT was 72 today.

2-21  Thought I'd try to jinx this, but right now it looks as if the next 10 days are warm with a little rain.  There will be some cold air from time to time and perhaps one of the storms cutting to the lakes will bring some front end snow if timed right.  But overall its a fairly snowless
and even dry
next 10 days.  Rain would come from cold fronts and could be heavy at times.
Highs for this week peak at near 70.  Then again over the weekend in the 60s and mid week in the 60's
Beyond that,  nothing below normal until the 4th -7th time period.  Long range always looks interesting.  Shot from the EPS control for the 7th. 


Saturday, February 11, 2017

2-12

2-11   A little more concerned with this one as the hrrr/rap are trending colder.  Currently under WWA for 3-6, sleet and ZR.  Concern is the cold doesn't leave.  Bigger concern to me is the opportunity for some heavier snow coming through before it changes.  Here are the vertical velocity at 700mb showing intense upward motion which leads to heavier precip.  This is all during the snow phase for areas north of the Merrit.


Monday, February 6, 2017

2-7 to 2-9 Active


28 - Evening.  NAM Comeback - almost all models have now gone to the 1+ qpf for the area.  This is a trend of the NAM - it keeps on strengthening.  Upping totals to 8-12.  On the record for 9.  But really can see us getting up to 15". Above that would be surprising.   In complete agreement with NWS on this one.  Blizzard conditions likely along shore, possible inland.  2-3"/hr rates fall between 7am and 11am.  The reasoning is tons of upward motion as shown on the 700VV Chart.  This is for 7am.  Literally off the scale.


 Meanwhile, heres todays trend for the Nam - slower, stronger. 
 

Most recent snow maps...
0z NAM
18z GFS
 

RGEM

NAM 4k
I've never seen the RAP put out this much before. Its hard to see but when you mouse over the map it shows N Fairfield with 17"
 

2-8  The ever shrinking NAM storm.... fears that it weakens and goes flatter still around.  But its moving to the Euro solution, which still brings warning level snow.  So all is ok.  Just not getting over a foot.






2-7  6pm.  Looking at 6-10 now for CT.  Up from 4-8  earlier today.  I think all parts get 6".  All models, including Canadian are showing snow for CT. 

2-7  Freezing rain this morning with 2h delay
Thursdays storm is supported by all models, and its snow for the Tristate.   Just a matter of how much.  NAM continues its furthest NW track,  GFS and Euro are outside the BM.  Euro had .42 qpf at 0z  and .72 at 12z.   GFS had .08 at 0z but .57 for 6z and 1.15 for 12z .
6z GFS

0z Euro
6z NAM (includes some from today in NNE)
So right now, I like 3-6 for most of NNJ/NYC/LI, 4-8 for most of CT.


Snow map for 12z Euro
24 hr precip





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2-6 - A little late in posting what is happening this week.

Tuesday -  should it get cold enough tonite, we are looking at some ice/sleet coming in.  Temps aloft should not be conducive to snow until you get close to the mass border, and even there it won't be more than an inch or two.  However, if we get into the 20s overnight, much of the area will have a hard time raising those ground temps until later, which could lead to some delays.

Wednesday - temps up to 60 in NYC early on. But I'm skeptical on how warm it gets in Newtown and for how long that warmth lasts.
Thursday - by Thursday morning temps are back to freezing. 
And a wave of LP passes to the southeast. 
How strong that LP becomes, and its placement will determine how much snow.  Right now, its fairly weak as it goes by.  Snow maps look like this - I'm with 3-6, but can see any of these scenarios happen
6z gfs 24hr snow

12z NAM has prev snow in MA/NH/VT/ME
0z Euro - includes prev snow in NNE
12z gfs