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Monday, February 6, 2017

2-7 to 2-9 Active

28 - Evening.  NAM Comeback - almost all models have now gone to the 1+ qpf for the area.  This is a trend of the NAM - it keeps on strengthening.  Upping totals to 8-12.  On the record for 9.  But really can see us getting up to 15". Above that would be surprising.   In complete agreement with NWS on this one.  Blizzard conditions likely along shore, possible inland.  2-3"/hr rates fall between 7am and 11am.  The reasoning is tons of upward motion as shown on the 700VV Chart.  This is for 7am.  Literally off the scale.

 Meanwhile, heres todays trend for the Nam - slower, stronger. 

Most recent snow maps...
0z NAM
18z GFS


NAM 4k
I've never seen the RAP put out this much before. Its hard to see but when you mouse over the map it shows N Fairfield with 17"

2-8  The ever shrinking NAM storm.... fears that it weakens and goes flatter still around.  But its moving to the Euro solution, which still brings warning level snow.  So all is ok.  Just not getting over a foot.

2-7  6pm.  Looking at 6-10 now for CT.  Up from 4-8  earlier today.  I think all parts get 6".  All models, including Canadian are showing snow for CT. 

2-7  Freezing rain this morning with 2h delay
Thursdays storm is supported by all models, and its snow for the Tristate.   Just a matter of how much.  NAM continues its furthest NW track,  GFS and Euro are outside the BM.  Euro had .42 qpf at 0z  and .72 at 12z.   GFS had .08 at 0z but .57 for 6z and 1.15 for 12z .
6z GFS

0z Euro
6z NAM (includes some from today in NNE)
So right now, I like 3-6 for most of NNJ/NYC/LI, 4-8 for most of CT.

Snow map for 12z Euro
24 hr precip

2-6 - A little late in posting what is happening this week.

Tuesday -  should it get cold enough tonite, we are looking at some ice/sleet coming in.  Temps aloft should not be conducive to snow until you get close to the mass border, and even there it won't be more than an inch or two.  However, if we get into the 20s overnight, much of the area will have a hard time raising those ground temps until later, which could lead to some delays.

Wednesday - temps up to 60 in NYC early on. But I'm skeptical on how warm it gets in Newtown and for how long that warmth lasts.
Thursday - by Thursday morning temps are back to freezing. 
And a wave of LP passes to the southeast. 
How strong that LP becomes, and its placement will determine how much snow.  Right now, its fairly weak as it goes by.  Snow maps look like this - I'm with 3-6, but can see any of these scenarios happen
6z gfs 24hr snow

12z NAM has prev snow in MA/NH/VT/ME
0z Euro - includes prev snow in NNE
12z gfs

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