April 2

4-2   Started snowing 4am or so.  The 11th cancelation of school this year.

3-31  Looks like another one.  2-6 inches for Mason Dixon line through CT.  Exactly who gets the most is trending.  Timing looks conducive for accumulation as it begins pre dawn. in CT and earlier elsewhere.

Trends:

GFS North

NAM North

Euro

March 20-24 - last ones?

3-22 results

3-21
Some theories as to why this busted so bad, so far.

First, there were too many competing lows.  Sucked the warmth, fuel, etc out of the atmosphere.  The upper low should have fired that up, but with no energy available at the surface, no temp contrast, there was not a lot to work with.

Second, nothing predicted that it would stall for ten hours.

Third, I was looking at radar depictions, which were accurate on the models.  However, the snow that was involved was minimal.

Lastly, its likely NJ, LI, NY all are pounded by this overnight.  Not sure we get more than 3" now here.  But its performing well elsewhere. Double digit snow so far from MD, PA, NJ and LI.  


3-21 morning radar - shows heavy but not translating to inch/hr

Satellite

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The low is jumpy on the 18z nam.  Wondering if chasing convection.

3-20 Continue watching trends. 0z NAM giveth, 6z NAM taketh.

NWS forecast this morning was mind blowing

Most guidance remains a 6-8" storm.  I made a crude map last night for the first time ever.

3-19

Trends trends trends.
of course the 18z gfs breaks the trend.

Latest NAM

12z GFS

3k nam

Euro

Meanwhile, we've gone under a winter storm watch with the below currently forecast

3-17
The Upper Level Low circled over SE Canada is what will dictate if we get precip.  Even the latest NAM takes the storm to our south and doesn't develop it much, due to the influence of that ULL.  IF that ULL moves out and the two other circled areas phase (past hr 84) then game on for a strong noreaster.  If the ULL stays, then it goes south.  If the ULL moves  out but the pieces remain separate, there would be some snow from CT to DE, perhaps VA.

Still a lot of disagreement in the gfs ensembles

3/15  Strong signals that something will happen next week, just exactly what is tbd.  All models have something moving through, but is it over us, south of us and out to sea?  Here's the NAVGEM from 12z today.  Typically the NAVGEM is east or southeast of where the storm ends up. We use it as a guide to compare with other more dynamic models, so when the other models are south or east of the NAVGEM there is confusion.  NAVGEM rarely gives a storm 3 days of life.

Meanwhile the 12z GFS output this snow map with a similar setup as NAVGEM

Canadian more south for now

JMA has great position

March 7

3/7  results
17" wiped on table, 13" on deck, 14" on grass.  Lost power for 36 hours at 5pm.  From 6 - 7 pm we had 4" of snow. Lots of thundersnow, mostly NYC south during the above radar loop

5pm 3-7

5pm

4" between 6 and 7pm

7pm

8pm

48 New Lebbon

22 new lebbon

Grays Plain

Still hill

Still hill

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3-6  Will grab the 12z snow maps for later analysis.  First wanted to post something that the NAM does at 850 with temps that I rarely see in our area.

 Here are the snow maps

3-5  Evening

NAM Precip trend.  0z was a little weaker and the upper low came into play 3-6 hours later. Not much of an affect.

So it has this as the snow total.

Here's a 10:1 ratio picture with JFK getting 29"

Have a surface low going up west, spitting out a secondary and a cut off deepening upper low capturing the primary.  The whole setup looks under done.

GFS upper low trend

NAM upper low trend

The above is the NAM run. Surprised the low doesn't deepen more

The Euro snow looks pretty good.

Or it could be the GFS

NAM looks a little far west with precip.  My immediate area isn't less snow due to warmth, just less precip.