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Friday, February 25, 2011

March starts with a break

2-26 Update on the indices - AO and NAO not making it to neutral before going positive again, PNA not making it to neutral before going negative again. Still signals for blowtorch, which we are not getting, but it should be warm with the trough in the west, ridge in the east.

2-25
For me and the weather. Most models showing a warmup for 3/1-3/7. I'll be out west dealing with their snow.

Longer term, the AO moves to neutral, the NAO moves to neutral and the PNA moves to neutral. Should the PNA go postive, AO and NAO go negative, cold and snow again. GFS ens and CMC ens just show a more zonal, normal look, with a little more trough in the west than the east and flat in between. So not overly supportive of real cold.

Otherwise, with average temps getting into the mid forties, we should be coming out of this soon.

Friday, February 18, 2011

25 - 2nd - getting busy again.

2-26

And I wondered if the northern sw and the main energy didn't phase, what would happen. The orig energy still going off NJ, where it should, but what if it was just a tad slower than the northern energy? GFS and NAM demonstrate this today. CMC and UKMET still phase and bring low up ST Lawrence. GFS, NAM Euro are further east, with the GFS and NAM trying to separate fully the two systems.



2-25

The winds kept to the coastal areas of CT. The prefront winds never happened here at all as we stayed in the mid 30's with 1.1 inches of rain. Some snow to start and a few snow showers to end. Post frontal passage, winds got up to 10mph sustained with gusts in the mid 20's.

Sunday seems to be still on with light snow. NAM has 3-6 inches. GFS morning runs had 3-6, afternoon it shifted the .25 inch line into north of I84. 18z run misses CT altogether. Euro also runs a bit north.

The wild thing about Mondays storm is that I've heard the saying that the latitude the storm enters the states is usually the latitude it exits. The upper feature for Mondays storm enters around San Francisco, which usually means it exits between ACY and NYC. Earlier runs had the feature really cutting to the lakes, which looked odd, but not unreasonable. Now the battle is whether it stays a true GLC (great lakes cutter) which exits the States through the lakes, or if it becomes a storm which goes into upstate ny and exits through New England. Yesterday, looked like the GLC. Today, most runs are through either in the Eastern lakes or through NY and NE. ST Lawrence seaway is the mean. Some of the gfs runs and the 12z euro have another double barrel, one going up the seaway another further sw.

But the upper features of these systems almost always make it here - its that the storm is jumping to the shortwave coming down from Canada, phasing and taking off NE. The original energy is going according to the rule.

We'll see if this bounces back a little further southeast. I really dont believe we will see too much else other than rain and wind, and it could be a lot of rain. It just can't make it further south than this last storm, but it could get into Mass and ALB again.



2-24 - busy work day.

No time to catch up on alot, but the wind threat, at least on the models looks to be from the CT coast on south over LI, NYC and NJ. 850 jet (5k feet) over 75kts (85-90 mph) which can mix down in tstorms. However, there is a sharp cutoff to the strong southerly winds in front of the low. By the time in mid Ct, there is an e or ne component to the wind and cooler temps. I wonder if the model isn't underdoing the extent north of the winds though. After frontal passage, the entire area should get some good gusts, but shouldn't be as bad as what is right before the passage.

edit -10apm - Sleeting again. NAM latest run now in and shifted a bit more south, enough so that there is a chance (gfs and euro support this too) that we see snow on the back end. Its common for models to predict this and its hard to figure timing on temps and precip, but the nam is definitely showing precip hanging well after the front passes.

Sunday is still on - 2-4 inches per nam/gfs - euro is more like 1.

I'm still hoping the storm Monday/Tuesday stays well west. 0z Euro, 0z ukmet and all runs of the gfs, dgex and CMC brought it through the lakes resulting in a frontal passage event here with only a brief period of heavy rain. Then the 12 euro went back to bringing it through New England. UKMET also shifted east, but only through w. ny. Interestingly they also have a shortwave trailing the front bringing a light snow event similar to this sat nite/sunday.

2-23 Morning

25th storm - all models conceding a run of the low either over or just north of us, rain for everyone south of ALB. Maybe some snow on the front and back end. Precip amounts have greatly increased, with well over an inch of rain possible in the area, with some mets calling for 2".

Sunday - still looks like its there, but only light snow/dusting.

Monday/Tues

Latest GFS runs move to the JMA solution of a monster storm in the Great Lakes. Euro still holds a track over upstate NY, but has edged west overnite. Best hope for this storm is that the bulk of the moisture stays to our west, resulting in some warmer temps without rain. Not sure we can handle another warm and wet storm with 2" of rain.

Prediction by Ch 8 is that snowpack will be gone by Tuesday after two full months of snow on the ground!




2-22
Friday25th
Euro shifts a bit east, bringing the low from the OV to just between ALB and DXR. Still a warm solution and all rain.
UKMET looks to have shifted bringing the storm well west, both runs.
CMC 0z was still to our south, but moved to a position right over nyc for the 12z run. So instead of all snow, its a mix of snow/rain/snow.
GFS - all runs today have the low exiting NJ or south with all snow dxr and mix in nyc metro. Odd that there is no real difference in the runs. Its 12z and 18z ensembles have come into agreement with the operational. The 0z and 6z runs were further north, right over nyc.
WRF/NAM - 0z was north, 6z went se, 12 really se, in line with gfs (but still changing everywhere to rain) and then the 18z run moved it back over nyc.

Consensus for Friday - low moves over nyc - brings mostly rain to the tristate, with some snow mixed in perhaps on the front and back end n+w of the city.

Sunday - GFS 0,6 and 12 had decent 2-4 inch storm. Euro has it too. Again, small, mostly snow for most of the area. CMC has it too, but the 12z run warms it up with possible change to rain. There really isn't a low associated with this, more of an upper air disturbance/wave.

Tuesday - all models on board with a fairly large storm. Its gone from a GLC to East Coast storm and now looks like its taking a track similar to Fridays. OV through PA just to our NW. 12z Euro has the 980 low over Springfield MA - via Columbus, State College,. It also has a wave out ahead - this doesn't seem right.

GFS starts with a coastal storm at 0z, then its over CT on 6z, then its over Buffalo at 12z and then Detroit at 18z.

So while the Euro had the GLC yesterday and has moved towards the coast, the GFS no longer on the coast, but in Detroit. JMA, fwiw, is over Lake Michigan.

No consensus for Tuesday as to track. Even the GFS coastal solution had air warm enough to support a mostly rain event everywhere.
Below are the JMA, GFS and Euro demonstrating the differences




2-21 GFS, CMC, UKMET, JMA all run the low friday over us, with GFS just to our south bringing snow. Still not biting on this one. Euro and dgex are too far north. Actually, the 12z cmc and gfs now have a coastal storm v. Euro dgex inland runner. UKMET is still right over us.

However, Sunday/Monday still look like a go, with even the euro and dgex on board. However its a small, no big deal snow like todays.

Euro also has a monster storm cutting to the lakes on Tuesday with a972 low. CMC also has that GLC. GFS develops this into a coastal, 992 storm.

2-20

After a messy end of this week, the GFS having mix rain and snow, Euro plain rain on Friday, the next threat is the 28th/1st. GFS consistent with a moderate event, around 4-6 inches. Euro brings LP across the country this time frame as well and exits it just to our south. CMC has front draped over us with some snow up to the 28th. JMA is headed to agreement, DGEX has it a bit earlier in the day on the 28th. Wow - all models showing something (again moderate for now)

CMC, Euro (slightly) and the wacky 18z gfs have snow around the 28th. The wacky 18z gfs is interesting as it also tries to snow on the 26th. But thats why I call it the wacky 18z run.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Presidents day

2-21 - reality. 2.5 inches here. 7 in lower westchester, greenwich, ne nj. No more expected tonite

2-20 - still looking like 3-6 inches. GFS and NAM have backed off precip to under .5
. But it will be cold aloft and at the ground as it didn't make it past 32 today. The second wave looks too south for us. Central to S NJ looks to get over .5 - 1 inch of precip between the two waves. So NAM, GFS, ARW, NMM and euro all have .25 to .5
2-18

Still looks like the first wave early Mon morn goes just to our north, with front end snow, 3-4 inches. The second wave just misses DXR to the south, but maybe gets into central to northern nj. Temps look marginal south of Danbury for the first storm, and it may even turn to rain in Danbury, but not until after the majority of precip has fallen. The Nam has been increasing the amounts for us -now showing .5-.7, which might put out 6". GFS has also trended whiter, but still has 3-6. Euro has us slotted in very light precip. CMC is on board with 2-4"


2-17

Flip flops - perhaps more later, but each model had a storm between NYC and DC at one point, and then over Montreal on the other run. Odd that they all did it at different runs. If I have time later will look into why. Some were so dramatic that when it went to the north, we got nothing and then to the south, nothing. Chances are its right in the middle - at us.

2-16

euro progressively moves the storm further south and weaker, to the point of nothing at all for us here with snow in DC on south. Gfs comes on board- has 6-8 inches monday night into tuesday. dgex has mix to snow with spotty 6-8 inches. UKMEt looks like it hits us direct, but seems a bit slow. CMC is hitting SNJ and Philly. Euro was first with the storm not going into Canada, but seems a bit unrealistic to snow in DC.

2-15
Indications are that next tuesday we could be in for a 3-6 inch storm. Euro has it, GFS shows it going just to our north with rain. JMA is borderline. DGEX goes way to the north. UKMEt looks like an I-80 track across the country.

More importantly, the west is getting pummeled for the next week with snow!

Friday, February 11, 2011

Thaw - winter break

2-18 - reality. Airport got to 59. My backyard got to 61! Awesome day!

2-17 high of 55 at dxr. 53 on the stick and 59 in the sun on the shed.
Satellite pic not too encouraging at this point as the warm front isn't really lifting ne, but kinda se.



2-11

The last snow was three days ago. The stronger Feb sun has been able to melt some snow despite temps still under freezing and below zero at the airport this morning. The next 10 days, with the exception of maybe Tuesday the 15th, should have highs above freezing. I'm hoping that by the 19th we will see a day in the 60's as the models are usually underdone on warmer temps this time of year. With no precip of significance showing up on the models, this is a great time to melt some snow. Only 22 inches until the grass shows up!

After the 19th, a zonal pattern sets in where we should be seeing less extremes, but wavering between above normal and below normal temps. With the AO and NAO positive, PNA negative, there's a stronger argument for more ridging and warmer temps though. If that pattern lasts as long as the other two patterns we've had (neg PNA/pos ao/pos nao and pos pna/neg ao/neg nao) this warmth could play until the middle of March, thus just about ending winter. But that's an if...

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

2-14 or 2-15 Long shot clipper

2-8

Next chance of snow on the Euro and JMA is a clipper on 2-15. GFS and CMC take it too far north, and earlier on the 14th, for anything other than light snow, but the Euro and JMA do put 2-4 inches down. Remarkably, its cold enough to snow.

This seems like a long shot right now, but its the only interesting thing on the map.

Friday, February 4, 2011

Real quick update on the next week

2-7

Saturday - got freezing rain all day. No snow accum

Tuesday storm - unbelievably still not phasing on the models, so it looks like a light snow event into Tues morning.

Thurs/Fri storm(s) are OTS - making it snow into SC and NC, going out off OBX and just keeps going.

None of this expected to change - will monitor and if anything changes, will post, but until then, a break.

2-4

Storm on Saturday now looks more like a rain storm to start for most of the NYC metro areas, with back edge snow in NNJ, Hudson Valley and CT. Still a close call as models are putting two lows out there. If the one by the coast is stronger (as in the 6z GFS which shows all snow), it will snow more. My call is lowered to 2-4 inches now in Danbury based on 4-6hrs of backend snow.

Tuesday storm is back on the map. Problem with this one is whether the two lows come together. The 12z Euro has the two phasing to a 988 BM low. 12z gfs is moving that way too, and wouldn't surprise me if the 18 or 0z runs put a 992 low or lower near us on Tues. 12z GGEM has the 988 over eastern LI. But all this depends on if the two lows phase. Euro puts out a 6 inch storm - no amts from other sources yet. JMA sends one north and one south.

Thursdays storm -

0z gfs was eye opening, strong blizzard. 6z was weaker, further east and 12z ots (out to sea) and weak. The difference again is phasing the northern storm with the southern storm.
oz Euro was a little inland, but the 12z placed it great. Cold storm, with 20:1 ratios should be a foot or more. GGEM concurs with Euro. JMA a bit further east, but phases.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

A big one shows up around the 10th

2-7 - the upper air pattern no longer supports a strong neg trough which would bring this. Instead its strung out positive, launching a few weak lows off the outerbanks. Being 72 hrs out with the energy onshore already, not likely going to adjust far enough n or w to affect us here.






GFS and Euro picking up on what could be a storm that is close to the December blizzard. Its still far out and there is plenty of time for it to drift westward in its track, but right now, the 18z wacky gfs has a 15-20 inch storm, which I would normally dismiss, but the Euro has a 12+ storm now, the 12z gfs had a 972 low just inside the benchmark, and the dgex has it just east of the bm.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

The end of winter, or just a break...

2-8 - highest temp showing up on gfs for next two weeks is in the upper 40's - although nyc may see one or two shots at 50.

Normal high for DXR now is in the upper 30's, NYC is the low 40's. So mid 40's to 50 is nice, but nothing out of the usual. Records for NYC are in the upper 60's to low 70's.

2-7 - update to pattern

PNA still tanking (which is contributing to the major storm ont he 10th going out to sea). NAO and AO still positive, but no significant warming (meaning 55 or greater) forecast yet. After the 20th, the AO and NAO are trending negative, which should allow the cold air to return, but not nearly as strong as the PNA is still forecast negative.








Posted on the accuweather forums 1/27 post 5593

"
Check out the PNA, AO and NAO toward the middle of Feb. Does a negative PNA, positive AO and positive NAO = blowtorch for the East? GFS ens out to 384 and Euro to 240 don't agree."


So a week later, some forecasters are pinpointing the end of the time frame these charts go to, as the end of winter. But the GFS and Canadian ensembles show the best we can do is normal. The euro doesn't go out that far, but for 10 days, its still way below normal. So are indices above forecast wrong? Will they correct and keep winter going, or is there simply too much cold air around so that even the perfect conditions for a warmup just means getting back to normal.