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Tuesday, February 1, 2011

The end of winter, or just a break...

2-8 - highest temp showing up on gfs for next two weeks is in the upper 40's - although nyc may see one or two shots at 50.

Normal high for DXR now is in the upper 30's, NYC is the low 40's. So mid 40's to 50 is nice, but nothing out of the usual. Records for NYC are in the upper 60's to low 70's.

2-7 - update to pattern

PNA still tanking (which is contributing to the major storm ont he 10th going out to sea). NAO and AO still positive, but no significant warming (meaning 55 or greater) forecast yet. After the 20th, the AO and NAO are trending negative, which should allow the cold air to return, but not nearly as strong as the PNA is still forecast negative.

Posted on the accuweather forums 1/27 post 5593

Check out the PNA, AO and NAO toward the middle of Feb. Does a negative PNA, positive AO and positive NAO = blowtorch for the East? GFS ens out to 384 and Euro to 240 don't agree."

So a week later, some forecasters are pinpointing the end of the time frame these charts go to, as the end of winter. But the GFS and Canadian ensembles show the best we can do is normal. The euro doesn't go out that far, but for 10 days, its still way below normal. So are indices above forecast wrong? Will they correct and keep winter going, or is there simply too much cold air around so that even the perfect conditions for a warmup just means getting back to normal.

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