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Sunday, January 30, 2011

2-5 or 2-6

2-3

12z euro still showing .5 at least for precip. Its alone in that respect, so I'll say 3-6 is more likely. NWS calling for mix for Danbury now, which could happen and keep amts down. We are barely below freezing at 850 on most runs now, but that doesn't mean that either in between time frames, or at a different layer, warm air moves in briefly.

0z cmc moving closer, 12z cmc has the storm again.
0z euro is showing the low right over nyc, but cold, with snow for most n or w of nyc.
0z gfs looks good - acy to ack. But its a little warm, so r/s line is pretty far nw at first.
6z gfs further east - va beach to bm. colder, but less precip. Same with 12z
0z UKMEt goes from KY to NYC. Warm and west. 12z forms a coastal to compete with the low in KY, but brings them together over NYC. Too west and warm for snow with in 60 miles of NYC.
0z NAM PHL to NYC - mix or rain for most of the area. Same with 6z, but could be more rain turning to snow. 12z has the KY solution of the ukmet, brings the coastal and inland together at NYC.

Now if they phase over NYC, and have the upper low there too, then upper air dynamics may drive temps down and turn rain to snow. Its not like its all that warm to begin with.

Right now, I don't buy the ukmet and nam solution, leaning toward gfs euro. Precip on NAM and GFS is between .25 and .5, while Euro is .5. While its a short storm, still not convinced that the precip is enough since its coming from the gulf.



2-2 - Euro runs and GFS from 0,6 and 12z showing the low coming up the coast, well inside the bm, bringing a mix to the NYC area, and a 4-8 inch storm to N and W. 0z cmc has storm in same position, but colder, bringing all snow. The 18z wrf aka nam has the low right over nyc, but a cold solution so the r/s line is right outside the city, but the 12z has the low in the same spot but warmer, with r/s line 30-40 miles n and w. 0z ukmet has low over cape cod. Can't tell exactly where the ukmet 12z runs, but it looks to initialize further west than the 0z.

Then there was the 12z ggem/cmc run which had it going out to sea off the carolinas. And the wacky 18z gfs which hits the bm with a good snow storm. The JMA goes just east of the BM.

Ens - gfs 12z was over the BM, the 18z just inside. Euro 0z right over NYC, 12z really doesn't form well, goes east of CCOD. CMC ensembles don't come near us.

Prelim precip amts range from .2 to 1". So you're cone of uncertainty goes from Myrtle Beach to Binghamton. Throwing out the 12z CMC,

This storm looks like a fast mover - 6-8 hrs of moderate snow, with a chance of a mix in and around nyc south and east. Accums should be 4-6, perhaps 8 in the northern subs where its colder and a higher ratio can kick in. Forecast would be based on average of models, with cmc tossed aside.

2-1

oz euro looks like its trying to phase with a clipper and brings weak storm up west of the apps, with rain here. This is similar to yesterdays runs, but todays 12z run keeps it cold enough here for snow as it forms a 1010 low off obx and brings it to a 1000 low over the BM. Sort of still phases it with the northern stream once at the bm. Looks like a 4-6 inch storm.

0z and 6zgfs has classic snow track, inside obx to ack, but little precip - 2-4 inches. 12z is a little closer to the coast, but still little precip for a storm starting in the gom and going up the coast.
0z cmc brings dbl barrel low up, then a coastal, right along the nj coast to ack at 1000mb
12z cmc taks low from ACY over nassau cty and west of new haven, resulting in a mix for us.
UKMET, both runs, have a bm low.
6z dgex goes right over nyc, bringing rain to most of the metro area. 18z brings storm up del river, phases and reforms over boston.
JMA has classic bm track

An inland storm seems unlikely, but maybe its the start of a trend.


1-30

0z euro grazes us with 3-6 inches
0z cmc has the 2-5 storm way out to sea, but brings another up late on the 6th
0z gfs grazes us 1-3
6zdegx brings 992 low over bm
0z nogaps has weak artic clipper moving through
12z euro tries to run it west of the apps, but secondaries off nj, not a lot of cold air though, only .3 qpf with 850 temp partially above freezing
12z cmc does the same as euro, but later on Sunday, but is colder and keeps it snow - looks bad
12z gfs brings snow up to s jersey, but then heads out to sea after, but the wacky 18z gfs has a direct hit 996 over bm
18z dgex brings low up to pittsburgh, then reforms over the catskills - rain to heavy snow for us, but not much further south.
12z jma goes out south

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