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Wednesday, January 26, 2011

2-1 to 2-3

Reality - 4" on the first batch. 1" of sleet/snow and a .3" of ice on 2-2. It did break freezing, but 6 hrs after precip ended, and only for an hour or two. It also oddly spiked again in the evening, right before the cold front came through. Lots of collapsed roofs, although power outages were not too bad. Two days off of school and a late opening on 2-3.


afternoon update - warmer trend on the models today continues. The gfs even includes a change to plain rain, but doubting that it would be in time to avoid a terrible ice storm. Hope right now is for sleet, not freezing rain. So far today, 4" of snow, temps in the low 20's.

0z nam came in warmer than previous with 850 temps in danbury. 850 line on nam goes to ct/ma border now. Odd since the low is weaker. Surface temps below freezing throughout still. The first band comes through with 4-6 inches, then quits, spits and I hope sleets. But with 3.6 at 850, more likely is freezing rain. 18z gfs also puts out 4-6, maybe even 8 before it turns. but then it also crashes the 850 line at 42hr (18zwed) as heavy precip breaks out, before flipping it north over us again at hr 48, then south of us at 54. So only a 6hr time frame to be rain. 18z gfs ens have low exiting south of nyc. 21z sref goes south of us as well. So the ens are looking more like snow/sleet. The operationals are more freezing rain.

0z gfs just in, followed nam in warming at 850, guaranteeing ice storm!

Latest RGEM has snow starting around midnite. Heavy for the am rush. Done by pm rush. Hits NNJ hard with ice, here its heavy snow going to sleet. Seems to have gotten colder, but we would also get ice at dxr, and a very brief period of rain at the end.


Focusing on frz rain v snow as surface temps on all models barely make it to or stay below freezing. CMC is norther outlier, NAM is southern outlier. Difference in storm track is 150-200 miles. NAM is only model showing mainly snow, GFS and Euro in the middle showing a bad ice storm. NAM's performance last storm was miserable, but it was too warm. Key is which model gets the transfer right and which is modeling the high pressure to our north right.

12z runs
GFS still at CT.MA border, dips just below. However, the printed data showing much warmer as almost 24 hrs is above freezing at 850, but that just means an inch of ice instead of a foot of snow. Max 850 temp on this run is 3.7
Euro- no visual yet, but printout shows increase in 850 temp to 4.5
NAM - along the Merrit to about 20 miles inland around New London, but printout shows dxr getting as high as .3 (but on Tuesday?) and as high as -1.1 on wed.
CMC still at Ma/VT border is now showing signs of a secondary off Jersey coast.
UKMET has line going through CT.

ENS - gfs and sref have the low exiting south of NYC - it is not unusual to have them off to the southeast, but it does indicate that the GFS and NAM are not certain of their solution and could trend colder. Euro ENS has a little spread to the SE, and actually shows a storm over the BM, albeit weak, but otherwise supports the 0z ensemble. NMM and AVR each have an all snow solution with storm well south of NYC. CMC ensembles mostly clustered LP between S Jersey and Plattsburgh, so big spread, but concentrated around southern new england.

oz runs - mostly getting colder
GFS brings 850 line to MA/ CT with a max temp of 1.3, 6z goes along I 84
Euro brings 850 line just north of dxr with max temp of 2.2
Nam - brings it to I 84, with 6z run brining it to the coast
CMC - still at MA/VT border

At right Weatherman's challenge - 850 temps, Canadian model vs NAM

18z NAM and GFS have complete 15-20 inch snowstorm for CT.


Looking like ice storm as surface temps remain at or just above freezing on the models, which are usually a bit too high with cold air damming situations
Watching trends to see which way this is moving - it was drifting north yesterday, need to see if shift south is a trend or blip - not usual for a south correction with this storm, but its starting to look like that jump to the coast comes off the C Jersey coast.
850 line at 18z wed
Euro 12z 1/29 was at mass vt border
Euro 0z 1/30 closer to mass ct border -max surface 1.2 850 4.7
GFS 12z 1/29 at mass ct border
gfs 18z at mass vt border
gfs 0z just south of the mass vt border
gfs 6z just south of mass ct border
gfs 12z just on mass ct border - surface temp does get to 1.4, but winds stay n to ne
nam 6z wed just south of vt border
nam 0z 12z wed just south of mass pike with 6z temps just north of ct border
nam 6z for 18z wed over I 84 as is 12z and 6z
nam 12z pushes 18z wed back to ct/ma border.
0z cmc has it at the ct/ma border - low going just s of here
12 z 1/29 nogaps is at ct/ma border
0z 1/30 nogaps is phl through cent nj
1/29 jma is highpoint to bennington


12z - Euro has temps aloft at dxr at a 4.9 max and surface at 2.1. NWS acknowledges the euro temps are generally too high, and using gfs in this case. Euro brings light precip in tues morn, leaving it all snow, with 2-4 inches from that impulse. Main storm begins 12z wed, as snow, but with the track right over us, it warms up to freezing rain (and rain by the surface temps which as noted are too high). A brief turn to snow by wed nite as well. 850 line at hr 102 is at the mass/vt border. Total precip is an inch, so not a disaster either if it goes to all rain or all snow.

12z track takes it right over us. Temps at 85o go above 0 from 18z to 0z, but not by much. Surface temps well below freezing throughout the event makes it a nasty ice storm.

18z gfs - warms it up enough, to 6c at 850 and 1.5 at the surface for a rain event from 18z through 0z on wed/thurs. It too shows a lead impulse on tuesday that would bring 2-3 inches, then a drizzle period, then rain and no turn back to snow. Its track is north of us, between kingston and albany.

GFS is trending north.

CMC this time is the southeastern outlier - with low going south of NYC resulting in all snow for us.

JMA goes from North Louisiana to Capecod in 24hrs, so its hard to tell temps and if it goes directly over or under.

UKMET seems to go to our west, but can't really tell.

DGEX brings it right over us, warm, and still has a storm on Saturday too.
Euro ens supports its operational.
CMC ens supports its operational.
GFS ens are south of its operational, but with significant spread to the north.

Todays conclusion - wintry mix, with likely changing to all rain.


0z cmc brings weak snow through tues nite and a weak double barrel through wed nite, one the north, one to the south with danbury right on the rain snow line.
oz euro brings a small distrubance up tues nite, with the main low going from central IN to NYC. It has a little too much warmth for us for my liking based on the track
ukmet is further south to start, in TN instead of IN and goes to Nova Scotia in 24 hrs.
dgex has one disturbance, looks like waa, and the second goes right over us and does its transfer to the coast then. Keeps us below freezing, but temps aloft look warm enough for freezing rain.
dgex also has a big storm for sunday too.
0z gfs has storm like the ukmet - starting further south and going just to the south of our area, but close enough to cause mixing problems in the area, with threat of snow and freezing rain mainly here.
6z gfs is similar - snow, frzrain, snow situation
Mets - including nws, JB calling for all snow for here so far.


0z cmc had western storm, up the apps, 12z had it transferring coastal around dc and keeping it all snow.
0z euro hit dead on, 12 headed further north across pittsburgh, albany and east across s vt. snow, ice, rain situation as the temps on the printout were only barely above freezing at the surface and 2 above at 850
All gfs solutions brought snow as the storm was south
JMA brings snow as storm is just south, more over trenton and just s of nyc.
nogaps has storm same as jma
UKMET 0z I dont' remember and the 12z had similar features to the euro
DGEX had nice storm, with weak disturbance on Tues nite and more on wed nite


0z euro pops a miller b off the NJ coast tues nite and starts bringing a weak system up coast on wed nite.
12z run looks like a frontal passage with a low riding up from the gulf - quick hitter. Precip on it was .81 though. passes well se of bm, but front enhance precip.

0z gfs has frontal passage with enhancement tues nite. LP develops over NOLA tues nite and slides off S\NC coast wed nite
12z GFS has storm hitting bm wed nite
0z GGEM brings low from NOLA up the TN Valley and off the NJ coast
12z GGEM flopped to a glc with some front end snow turning to rain
6z dgex has front with weak low on tues, stronger 998 low going from NOLA, up the TN valley off NJ and inside bm.


Brief rundown on next week.
GFS, except for the 18z run which shows a storm on the 3rd, is quiet
CMC, has major storm on the first.
Euro showing a Great Lakes Cutter, but the 12 z also had a huge WAA event for us. Not seeing the cold air damming though.
Nogaps has storm on Wed
DGEX has storm on Tuesday, not a major one though
I think the UKMET is brewing up a storm post 144hr that starts in the Gulf and cuts to the lakes or apps - we'll see tomorrow.

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