9-30 Euro did not change its mind, too much. Just moved 150 miles or so to the west. It remains the only model with no US landfall
6z GFDL currently leads in the worst case scenario with a westward moving storm with 120mph sustained winds just to the south of Chesapeake bay, which will already be backed up due to an easterly fetch.
6z GFS very similar to HWRF (not usual) with 975 low hitting same area. Tidbits has the winds at 100mph on its graphic. 0z is a little further north, same strength.
CMC goes 972mb low into the DelMarVa.
UKMET targets NJ
Overall spread of runs clearly in favor of a landfall