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Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin

9-30 pm update.  Not too much change today, just a small shift west/south. Euro still showing it going out to sea.  GFDL still looks really bad, 939 mb with 130mph winds at landfall in NC.  Most models are focused on Outer Banks to Chesapeake now, with a few still showing NJ in the mix for a landfall.  What happens after landfall will need to be discussed at some point - models are all over on that one too.  My concern about the models is that none of them forecast a 105mph nearly cat 3 storm this early.  Typically you see stronger storms start to head north - Euro had kept it weaker, driving it further SW and slowing it so that it wasn't as influenced by the upper level low (ULL) over GA.  Its obviously way stronger than modeled, even at 12z today, but it hasn't affected any forecast yet.  Joaquin at this strength is still moving SW, which is odd for its strength but there are 200-300mb winds out of the NE which could be causing that (although it also could be outflow, and venting the system), but they aren't that strong.

18z GFDL


9-30  Euro did not change its mind, too much.  Just moved 150 miles or so to the west.  It remains the only model with no US landfall

6z GFDL currently leads in the worst case scenario with a westward moving storm with 120mph sustained winds just to the south of Chesapeake bay, which will already be backed up due to an easterly fetch. 
6z HWRF is only a little less concerning with a 945 low hitting the Outer Banks. Only 105mph winds




6z GFS very similar to HWRF (not usual) with 975 low hitting same area.  Tidbits has the winds at 100mph on its graphic.  0z is a little further north, same strength.




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 CMC goes 972mb low into the DelMarVa.
UKMET targets NJ
 

Overall spread of runs clearly in favor of a landfall

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