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Thursday, October 1, 2015

Can the Euro snatch victory and save us all?

4:30  Euro holds out to sea again. GFS 6 and 12z agree.  UKMET hits Bermuda.  HWRF sends it out to sea.  GFDL, CMC, hurricane models and now the NAM are closer or hitting the east coast.   I still think a fast exit to the ENE from the Bahamas is odd - nothing really acting on the storm.  GFS is closer to my thinking, which means NYC-Cape should still watch this.  It would be horrible if the Euro changed its mind now! 
 

7:30 Monday's 12z run the Euro had the solution most models came to later yesterday - upper low snags Joaquin and it makes a hard left turn into the Carolinas.  Then Tuesday morning's run, Joaquin just headed towards Bermuda, only to move back to a position between Bermuda and the Cape on Wednesday.  No credit for strength, as it did predict 970 lows, it didn't get it into the 930's where it is (unofficially at this time) now.

Up until last night, every ( I mean every) other model had a US landfall, mostly between NC and NJ.  That is until the 0z GFS which shifted to the east/north to a NYC area landfall.  6z run of the GFS completely misses the US, might hit Canada.  UKMET also moved to a near Cape Cod solution on its 0z run. 

So we will see the forecasters likely shift the path east (already did somewhat this morning) as the trends are starting.  However, given the amount of time (now landfall on Monday/Tuesday) and that the deterministic models still aren't initializing and capturing the strength, plus some discrepancies in the upper levels and lastly, possible interaction with Ida, its hard to say we're past this one.  Still keep an eye on it.

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