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Friday, October 2, 2015

Negative tilted trough, storm out to sea?


NAM, Canadian, and NAVGEM are only operational models left with a US coastal hit.  Some hurricane ensemble members do as well, but they are in the minority.  So whats left to do but watch.  Some interesting features - there is a ULL in the Atlantic heading towards HJ, and an ULL over the SE heading to HJ.  There is also a negatively tilted trough at 250,300 and 500mb.  ULL lows at 850 and 750 have merged with HJ.  All of this, and it still goes out to sea.  

In the gif below, you can see the two upper level lows (swirls in orange/black)  mentioned above, you can see the water vapor stripping off HJ into the front/trough (that I thought would influence HJ).  You'd think that the two ULLs would either push the storm south, or squeeze it north along the jetstream and front.

Below are the winds at 300mb, which would steer the storm.  Black lines indicate direction of wind, red line is forecast track.  Makes no sense.  You'd think it would go north.

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