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Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Joaquin and the weekend

9/29 - Its going to rain finally....

First, today its in the 80's again. 25th day in the 80's in NY in Sept, 25th day above normal here.  Hasn't rained yet either.  The air is soupy and some tstorms are coming in from the south.  Not sure the heaviest of rain will hit here with the frontal system, may just go to our NW.

Joaquin is slow.  Since it is a day slower now, the track is differing. There is no lock on the track.  If it continues slow and weak, it may miss the upper low completely as well as any trough. 

Euro yesterday drove it to the Bahamas as a 993 low on Friday, and then got sucked into the upper low over the SE, driving it it into the Chesapeake.  Today, it goes SW into the Bahamas on Thurs, stays on Friday deepening to 956mb and moves slowly NE at 951mb on Saturday.  The upper low repels it rather than attracts it and it heads out to sea.  Now the morning run had the upper low spawn a noreaster that would bring us a ton of rain and wind anyway, but that feature goes pretty far out to sea off NC.  Trending East.  Update - the Euro ensembles at 12z and the control show more of a landfall in NC

Euro Enscontrol
GEM aka Canadian has it just to the east of the Bahamas on thurs and friday, down to 973mb. But instead of moving out to sea, it moves north (as it probably should) and then gets sucked in by the upper low over the SE.  Slams into Cape May Sunday from the SE as a 965 low, then follows the coast  as it converts to extratropical and goes through SNE on Tues morn.  That means a lot of rain.  Crazy enough, the early run of the GEM had another TS form and pivot around Joaquin with the combined storm grazing the Cape.

GFS - 0z run took a weak storm up the coast into NJ from the SSE.  6z develops a noreaster out of the upper low as it moves NE, repelling Joaquin similar to the Euro.  12z run has Joaquin shed some energy, develop a new low over NC.  Oddly, the new low moves NW into OH and Joaquin moves SE away from us.  Trend is east with Joaquin. (updated)   Until.... the 18z run comes in with an intensifying storm down to 975 in the Chesapeake coming in from the SE
Loading Maps...

HWRF 12z run keeps it hitting the mid atlantic/Chesapeake at 942mb, long range hurricane models are everywhere and gfdl is out to sea.  6z run loops it around the upper low and swings it into RI/CT from the SW.  0z smacked NYC from the SW.   So it moved left, right, left.

GFDL takes it NE to just W of Bermuda, then hooks it to the NW.  What you can't see on the map below is there is a huge high pressure causing this.  If that remains, then the storm may make it all the way back.  Update:  18z brings a 952 low into Long Island Sun nite

GFDL last frame  with big ridge blocking to the NE and storm heading NW

GFDL 18z run, back west again

Model spread

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
Hurricane Center splitting the difference

UKMET for kicks

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