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Friday, September 25, 2015

Trop storm threat late sept, early oct


9-25  Persistent Highs moving off NE and blocking make any energy going off the SE coast something to watch. Example is TS forming off SE Coast and hitting Delaware Bay on Oct 4.  This is only one run, but there were forecasts for today to have a similar feature.  The pattern is right for something to develop.  Meanwhile moderate drought conditions persist in the NYC metro.
9/28  Came home to find the locals warning of a tropical storm to hit us late in the week.
12z euro bullish on a Chesapeake hit. Maybe 978 low? 0z had week LP 1008 hitting LI/SNE with another threat brushing cape cod later in the period.
12z euro
0z euro
12z gfs similar to 0z euro
GFDL makes me sick.

As does the hwrf

Here are the tracks


CMC keeps it going north along 70w.
Euro ens are close, gfs ens keep it out.
Lots of time to change.

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