2-21 - reality. 2.5 inches here. 7 in lower westchester, greenwich, ne nj. No more expected tonite
2-20 - still looking like 3-6 inches. GFS and NAM have backed off precip to under .5
. But it will be cold aloft and at the ground as it didn't make it past 32 today. The second wave looks too south for us. Central to S NJ looks to get over .5 - 1 inch of precip between the two waves. So NAM, GFS, ARW, NMM and euro all have .25 to .5
Still looks like the first wave early Mon morn goes just to our north, with front end snow, 3-4 inches. The second wave just misses DXR to the south, but maybe gets into central to northern nj. Temps look marginal south of Danbury for the first storm, and it may even turn to rain in Danbury, but not until after the majority of precip has fallen. The Nam has been increasing the amounts for us -now showing .5-.7, which might put out 6". GFS has also trended whiter, but still has 3-6. Euro has us slotted in very light precip. CMC is on board with 2-4"
Flip flops - perhaps more later, but each model had a storm between NYC and DC at one point, and then over Montreal on the other run. Odd that they all did it at different runs. If I have time later will look into why. Some were so dramatic that when it went to the north, we got nothing and then to the south, nothing. Chances are its right in the middle - at us.
euro progressively moves the storm further south and weaker, to the point of nothing at all for us here with snow in DC on south. Gfs comes on board- has 6-8 inches monday night into tuesday. dgex has mix to snow with spotty 6-8 inches. UKMEt looks like it hits us direct, but seems a bit slow. CMC is hitting SNJ and Philly. Euro was first with the storm not going into Canada, but seems a bit unrealistic to snow in DC.
Indications are that next tuesday we could be in for a 3-6 inch storm. Euro has it, GFS shows it going just to our north with rain. JMA is borderline. DGEX goes way to the north. UKMEt looks like an I-80 track across the country.
More importantly, the west is getting pummeled for the next week with snow!