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Friday, February 18, 2011

25 - 2nd - getting busy again.

2-26

And I wondered if the northern sw and the main energy didn't phase, what would happen. The orig energy still going off NJ, where it should, but what if it was just a tad slower than the northern energy? GFS and NAM demonstrate this today. CMC and UKMET still phase and bring low up ST Lawrence. GFS, NAM Euro are further east, with the GFS and NAM trying to separate fully the two systems.



2-25

The winds kept to the coastal areas of CT. The prefront winds never happened here at all as we stayed in the mid 30's with 1.1 inches of rain. Some snow to start and a few snow showers to end. Post frontal passage, winds got up to 10mph sustained with gusts in the mid 20's.

Sunday seems to be still on with light snow. NAM has 3-6 inches. GFS morning runs had 3-6, afternoon it shifted the .25 inch line into north of I84. 18z run misses CT altogether. Euro also runs a bit north.

The wild thing about Mondays storm is that I've heard the saying that the latitude the storm enters the states is usually the latitude it exits. The upper feature for Mondays storm enters around San Francisco, which usually means it exits between ACY and NYC. Earlier runs had the feature really cutting to the lakes, which looked odd, but not unreasonable. Now the battle is whether it stays a true GLC (great lakes cutter) which exits the States through the lakes, or if it becomes a storm which goes into upstate ny and exits through New England. Yesterday, looked like the GLC. Today, most runs are through either in the Eastern lakes or through NY and NE. ST Lawrence seaway is the mean. Some of the gfs runs and the 12z euro have another double barrel, one going up the seaway another further sw.

But the upper features of these systems almost always make it here - its that the storm is jumping to the shortwave coming down from Canada, phasing and taking off NE. The original energy is going according to the rule.

We'll see if this bounces back a little further southeast. I really dont believe we will see too much else other than rain and wind, and it could be a lot of rain. It just can't make it further south than this last storm, but it could get into Mass and ALB again.



2-24 - busy work day.

No time to catch up on alot, but the wind threat, at least on the models looks to be from the CT coast on south over LI, NYC and NJ. 850 jet (5k feet) over 75kts (85-90 mph) which can mix down in tstorms. However, there is a sharp cutoff to the strong southerly winds in front of the low. By the time in mid Ct, there is an e or ne component to the wind and cooler temps. I wonder if the model isn't underdoing the extent north of the winds though. After frontal passage, the entire area should get some good gusts, but shouldn't be as bad as what is right before the passage.

edit -10apm - Sleeting again. NAM latest run now in and shifted a bit more south, enough so that there is a chance (gfs and euro support this too) that we see snow on the back end. Its common for models to predict this and its hard to figure timing on temps and precip, but the nam is definitely showing precip hanging well after the front passes.

Sunday is still on - 2-4 inches per nam/gfs - euro is more like 1.

I'm still hoping the storm Monday/Tuesday stays well west. 0z Euro, 0z ukmet and all runs of the gfs, dgex and CMC brought it through the lakes resulting in a frontal passage event here with only a brief period of heavy rain. Then the 12 euro went back to bringing it through New England. UKMET also shifted east, but only through w. ny. Interestingly they also have a shortwave trailing the front bringing a light snow event similar to this sat nite/sunday.

2-23 Morning

25th storm - all models conceding a run of the low either over or just north of us, rain for everyone south of ALB. Maybe some snow on the front and back end. Precip amounts have greatly increased, with well over an inch of rain possible in the area, with some mets calling for 2".

Sunday - still looks like its there, but only light snow/dusting.

Monday/Tues

Latest GFS runs move to the JMA solution of a monster storm in the Great Lakes. Euro still holds a track over upstate NY, but has edged west overnite. Best hope for this storm is that the bulk of the moisture stays to our west, resulting in some warmer temps without rain. Not sure we can handle another warm and wet storm with 2" of rain.

Prediction by Ch 8 is that snowpack will be gone by Tuesday after two full months of snow on the ground!




2-22
Friday25th
Euro shifts a bit east, bringing the low from the OV to just between ALB and DXR. Still a warm solution and all rain.
UKMET looks to have shifted bringing the storm well west, both runs.
CMC 0z was still to our south, but moved to a position right over nyc for the 12z run. So instead of all snow, its a mix of snow/rain/snow.
GFS - all runs today have the low exiting NJ or south with all snow dxr and mix in nyc metro. Odd that there is no real difference in the runs. Its 12z and 18z ensembles have come into agreement with the operational. The 0z and 6z runs were further north, right over nyc.
WRF/NAM - 0z was north, 6z went se, 12 really se, in line with gfs (but still changing everywhere to rain) and then the 18z run moved it back over nyc.

Consensus for Friday - low moves over nyc - brings mostly rain to the tristate, with some snow mixed in perhaps on the front and back end n+w of the city.

Sunday - GFS 0,6 and 12 had decent 2-4 inch storm. Euro has it too. Again, small, mostly snow for most of the area. CMC has it too, but the 12z run warms it up with possible change to rain. There really isn't a low associated with this, more of an upper air disturbance/wave.

Tuesday - all models on board with a fairly large storm. Its gone from a GLC to East Coast storm and now looks like its taking a track similar to Fridays. OV through PA just to our NW. 12z Euro has the 980 low over Springfield MA - via Columbus, State College,. It also has a wave out ahead - this doesn't seem right.

GFS starts with a coastal storm at 0z, then its over CT on 6z, then its over Buffalo at 12z and then Detroit at 18z.

So while the Euro had the GLC yesterday and has moved towards the coast, the GFS no longer on the coast, but in Detroit. JMA, fwiw, is over Lake Michigan.

No consensus for Tuesday as to track. Even the GFS coastal solution had air warm enough to support a mostly rain event everywhere.
Below are the JMA, GFS and Euro demonstrating the differences




2-21 GFS, CMC, UKMET, JMA all run the low friday over us, with GFS just to our south bringing snow. Still not biting on this one. Euro and dgex are too far north. Actually, the 12z cmc and gfs now have a coastal storm v. Euro dgex inland runner. UKMET is still right over us.

However, Sunday/Monday still look like a go, with even the euro and dgex on board. However its a small, no big deal snow like todays.

Euro also has a monster storm cutting to the lakes on Tuesday with a972 low. CMC also has that GLC. GFS develops this into a coastal, 992 storm.

2-20

After a messy end of this week, the GFS having mix rain and snow, Euro plain rain on Friday, the next threat is the 28th/1st. GFS consistent with a moderate event, around 4-6 inches. Euro brings LP across the country this time frame as well and exits it just to our south. CMC has front draped over us with some snow up to the 28th. JMA is headed to agreement, DGEX has it a bit earlier in the day on the 28th. Wow - all models showing something (again moderate for now)

CMC, Euro (slightly) and the wacky 18z gfs have snow around the 28th. The wacky 18z gfs is interesting as it also tries to snow on the 26th. But thats why I call it the wacky 18z run.

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