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Friday, February 4, 2011

Real quick update on the next week

2-7

Saturday - got freezing rain all day. No snow accum

Tuesday storm - unbelievably still not phasing on the models, so it looks like a light snow event into Tues morning.

Thurs/Fri storm(s) are OTS - making it snow into SC and NC, going out off OBX and just keeps going.

None of this expected to change - will monitor and if anything changes, will post, but until then, a break.

2-4

Storm on Saturday now looks more like a rain storm to start for most of the NYC metro areas, with back edge snow in NNJ, Hudson Valley and CT. Still a close call as models are putting two lows out there. If the one by the coast is stronger (as in the 6z GFS which shows all snow), it will snow more. My call is lowered to 2-4 inches now in Danbury based on 4-6hrs of backend snow.

Tuesday storm is back on the map. Problem with this one is whether the two lows come together. The 12z Euro has the two phasing to a 988 BM low. 12z gfs is moving that way too, and wouldn't surprise me if the 18 or 0z runs put a 992 low or lower near us on Tues. 12z GGEM has the 988 over eastern LI. But all this depends on if the two lows phase. Euro puts out a 6 inch storm - no amts from other sources yet. JMA sends one north and one south.

Thursdays storm -

0z gfs was eye opening, strong blizzard. 6z was weaker, further east and 12z ots (out to sea) and weak. The difference again is phasing the northern storm with the southern storm.
oz Euro was a little inland, but the 12z placed it great. Cold storm, with 20:1 ratios should be a foot or more. GGEM concurs with Euro. JMA a bit further east, but phases.

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