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Wednesday, December 14, 2011

White Christmas

I've pretty much had a white Christmas since moving to Danbury, despite the odds being about 40%. This year is looking less likely with no true snow storms being progged by the models. Now that we are at 240hrs, I'll start a daily update as to snow around Christmas.

12-23 - towel is being thrown in. Nothing on any model anywhere, but east of BM. JB insists it will happen. Might be the only one.
18z gfs run

12-22 Yesterdays afternoon runs were a let down. Nothing was showing anywhere, with the Euro - the king - only blowing a storm up well off the coast. Usually storms move further nw with time, until inside 48 hrs, and even then the models can be off by 100 miles. So, with just the sliver of hope, I continue to check.

0z Euro - develops low off NC, phases east of BM, but not by much. No effect
12z Euro - no real shift on the 24 hr - will wait for Accuweather to see what happens in the middle.
0z gfs - sends wave off NC, has Northern Low go through MAine. Nothing.
6z gfs - same as 0z, with southern wave reaching northern low just offshore of Nova Scotia
12z - 0z26th northern low through lakes and ny, southern low off nc, instead of going east or ene, the low heads nne, meets the northern at the BM, snow in Cape Cod
0z UKMET - nothing
12z run - only up to 72 hrs so far, but showing that the n branch dipping down now instead of zonal. hmm
0z CMC - develops weak system east of the benchmark
12z System now develops over BM, with snow brushing Cape Cod, and flurries in SNE
JMA - takes southern stream, develops off NC and goes east of BM. Just noticed it has snow for us for the 22nd.

18z GFS shows SE CT getting brushed by some snow early mon morning. Typically this would shift back a bit further nw. However, with no other model support, or support from its ensembles, its tough to think this will affect the area. But it still is a sliver of hope.

12-21 Chaos continues, Euro backs down a little, attention turns to Friday for any hope of white christmas

0z Euro has a wave now going off the coast of NJ, little or no impact for our area. Upper air looks less amplified than in previous runs, thus pushing out to sea rather than up coast.
0z GFS has nada - actually pushing a warm front with no precip in site
6z GFS - actually has a storm, is more amplified than any past 6-8 runs, and is similar to Euro. Brings low off NC. Is this the solution?
UKMET - nada
JMA - similar to Euro
Nogaps - nada
Dgex - now has storm, but moves it due east off SC
CMC pops storm on Monday, but off the coast

12z runs
GFS -precip gets to delmarva, but bulk goes ene ots, ensembles have no precip at all
CMC - has no precip, until storm forms off coast on monday
Euro - wave goes off NC, meets N Stream wave east of BM and bombs out, nada
Now these could come back, but not looking likely.

12-20 Models waffling, Euro remains steadiest.

0z Euro delays storm until Sun afternoon. 850 line just reaches us, but not before .4" of precip (4-6 inches) falls. Ground temps are still too high too. 1012 off NC/VA at 18z, 0z 60-100 miles east of CM, 6z 100mb over MVY.
0z GFS tries to double barrel low up the apps, transfers off coast to 1004 low over MVY by 12zSun. 0 line at CT/MA border. mostly rain, with some mix to start. Cold front really doesnt make it through.
6z gfs - pushes front through, never develops storm, keeps wave precip well to our south and east.
oz Euro ensembles are faster than the operational and take storm from 1004 of ACY at 18zsun to Boston at 996 by 0z. But at the height (18z) the 0/850 line is near I 80. By that time, there is already .5-.75 qpf fallen.
6z DGEX - nothing. Kinda opposite of yesterday
0z CMC - nothing develops, wave passes just south with flurries in our area
JMA goes east of BM
GFS Ens have snow on Friday, but nothing after until maybe monday.
UKMET has low coming through TN valley, likely rain, but it has something.

Afternoon update: waffling continues
12z Euro - stays steady, although a bit slower, weaker and just a tad nw of the 0z. Printout shows .55 of precip falling with 850 temps below 0, but then they rise barely above. So some snow, perhaps a warm dryslot after. Starting in the early afternoon, heaviest at night.
12z GFS - nada
12z CMC - runs inland, but still east of the apps. Snow to rain, also has it starting 0z Monday.
12z UKMET - loses the L, but still has a wave nearby.
18z gfs - nada, not even a wave.

I am wondering why the GFS breaks down the SE ridge.

12-19 Euro - snow Christmas eve overnight into Christmas Day. Relies on weak southern storm and bombs storm off ACY to ACK from 1004 to 996. GFS, also has snow, but lighter (1-3") and more marginal. CMC puts storm on Christmas night into monday, drags storm west of apps, but does hit us with front band of snow on Christmas night. UKMET at 144 (Christmas eve) shows nothing, nogaps shows nothing. 6z gfs has northern stream snow Christmas eve night, with weaker southern system, thus warming up to rain. 6z DGEX has all out snow storm Christmas Eve night, very similar to Euro except colder. Afternoon update: 12z GFS keeps one storm north, the other south, the one in the north stronger, so warm air comes up for rain. The 12z CMC, instead of west of Apps, is now out to sea.

12-17 cmc big storm to lakes. Gfs does a coastal on the 24th, but keeps it too warm. Euro keeps storm in n branch on the 24th and passes it to our north, keeps it weak and warm. Euro and gfs show flurries possible afterwards. More later maybe. Interesting that the 12z gfs suppresses the system completely on the 24th after the 22 ne storm goes to our south with rain. Euro takes the first one to the lakes, and never develops more than a wave, which also goes south of us on the 23rd.

12-16 - sensing a storm on Christmas Eve/Day

0z Euro shifts the 12/22 storm over us, with the 850 and 540 line now remains in New England,but as the storm pulls out of NE, a high follows in from the SOUTHWEST! So it warms up, cold front approaches the 24th, stalls. Weak storm develops and slides southeast of NJ, so there is a chance of flurries, at first, but 850 line is north of CT for most of what little precip falls. Climatologically, this makes no sense. End of december storms passing south of us are usually snow or no.

GFS - 0z doesnt really generate a storm, on the 22nd. A weak distrubance through the lakes, keeps it warm. Then a sw in north and south phase right over us on the 24th, but the 850 line is in VT for the bulk of the precip, again, NY and PA could get good snow.
6z develops the 22nd as a clipper, but a little too late. As the Euro, the storm is further south as is the 850 line, but still not south enough to snow here. Front stalls on the 24th, but no storm forms.
12z 22nd storm never forms, sw does push over our area bringing flurries or sprinkles. Front stalls on the 23rd and develops a weak storm which pushes off se of the area. 850 line is through MA, Catskills, Poconos for most of the event, although if the moisture can get in fast enough there could be some front end snow.

Crazy Canadian pushes the 22nd storm over Buffalo, stalls the front (like the euro) develops a storm along the front (weak at first, 996 over NH)). Storm goes from OBX, to RI/MA, NH, ME. So north, which is odd. West PA and NY would see snow, rest maybe some mixed or starting as snow, but a decent rain storm.

12-14 - 240 hrs now showing on Euro and CMC.
Euro has a strong low over Toronto, supporting my assertion that we will have a tornado watch around Christmas. (such assertion being tongue in cheek after Halloween was cancelled due to snow)
CMC has weak coastal storm (1010) right off the coast. 0 line at 850 along I95 and would mean snow.
0z GFS has a weak low coming out of the OH Valley on the 22nd, going too close to us for snow
6z has frontal passage on the 24th, maybe showers or a flurry

12-15 Still nothing exciting - Crazy Canadian has a storm, but no support elswhere or in the pattern
Euro has frontal passage, dry, on the 20th and a 1000mb low S of Long Island on the 22nd. This would normally be a snow event, but the 540 line is in Canada. Front pushes back through on the 24th with flurries and rain/snow showers.
GFS has fropa on the 20th, but the next storm is poorly organized and is split with one part over the lakes and another coming through the TN valley. It eventually forms a 1008 low off Cape Cod on the 22nd, but it too has the 540 line in Canada. Front passes through the 24th, dry.

CMC has no frontal passage in the 20th and its really warm. A storm develops over lakes on the 21st and goes into N New England. On the 22nd, its got a much stronger storm further north with cold air drilling into the NE. At the same time, a clipper is dropping out of Canada into the lakes and another shorwave is crossing TX. The clipper keeps descending into the US, the swave comes NE and they meet off of Cape cod on the 24th. See pic below. All the while the 0line at 850 and 540 line remain SE of the area, resulting in a nice snow storm, near 6 inches.

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