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Monday, December 5, 2011

First "winter" storm post

12-8 Outcome:  2.8 inches of rain fell between 12-6 and 12-8.  We did get a mix of snow overnite as I saw some really big flakes with a temp of 34.  DXR reported snow as well. We did not wake to a snow cover, although other reports from around here did mention that there was a coating overnight.  It may have melted.  Bigger story was the rain and wind.  Wind gusts up to 25MPH were common here at the house and at DXR they were in the low 30's.    Long Island had reports of gusts near hurricane levels. W Milford NJ reported 1 inch. Parts of upstate NY and the Berks got 3-5.  No reports from Litchfield and Taunton didn't put out a snow statement, just rain, with the Hartford area gettting over 3 inches.  Mt Holly had a report of 4 inches in the poconos.  Glad I didn't get to on board with this - some mets had statements like "the areas targeted by the October storm will be targeted by this one" with 9-12". 

12-6 Models all shifted N and W with the low coming over NYC.  All are within the BM which given that its 61 right now, isn't likely producing major snow. There will be some, but I can't tell how much as the low is at NYC and 6 hrs later is on the ME/CAN border.  Cold air will come in, and there is a half inch of precip falling between 42 and 48 hrs, but no idea if all of it falls prior to the cold, or if all of it falls while its cold.  Also suspect is the amount for that time frame, given the position and speed of the storm. 1-3 or would be my best guess, but that may be a little aggressive.  Even with the speed of the system, noting that the GFS and NAM each put well over 1.5 qpf down.  Seems like a lot, but then again its pretty juicy outside.


It remains a long shot based on the pattern we are in, but if the trailing upper low in the sw times correctly (after frontal passage) and comes up far enough north (benchmark), we could get snow on the 7th into the 8th.

CMC - 0z is running west of us. 12z runs se of BM.

Euro - 0z hits the BM, but its too warm at first, changes to snow around 6z on thurs. 2-4 inches

12z Euro goes a little crazy -can only see what is below at this point.

GFS -0z nada. 6z weak and well out to sea. 12z closer to BM, still weak, snow DC to ACY.

NAM - 0z run too slow - doesnt get it to us and looks like its trying to go west and warm up

6z puts low off ACY Thurs Afternoon with 2-3 snow possible.

12znam speeds up to the rest of the models, puts low just inside BM with 3-6 snow possible.

Usually the NAM runs northwest of the other models, but having the Euro backing it makes me rethink the possibilities.

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