Saturday, December 9, 2023

12-10/12-11 storm - no snow for us but rain/wind

12/12 Outcome:  Here's a map of the snow from the storm. As expected, mostly Catskills, ADKS, VT/NH with some in the Berks.  As not expected, some snow in VA, MD, SPA and SNJ on the back side did coat the ground.


Winds in the NYC area
...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Provider

...Connecticut...

...Middlesex County...
3 ENE Moodus                 56 MPH    1040 PM 12/10   Mesonet

...New Haven County...
Stony Creek                  42 MPH    1037 PM 12/10   CWOP
Hammonasset                  41 MPH    1038 PM 12/10   WXFLOW

...New London County...
2 E Mystic                   45 MPH    1140 PM 12/10   Mesonet
4 ESE Mystic                 43 MPH    0615 PM 12/10   Mesonet

...New York...

...Nassau County...
Bayville                     47 MPH    0821 PM 12/10   WXFLOW

...Queens County...
Kew Garden Hills             48 MPH    0820 PM 12/10   NYSM
NYC/JFK Airport              41 MPH    0849 PM 12/10   ASOS

...Suffolk County...
2 ENE Shoreham               57 MPH    0220 AM 12/11   Mesonet
Great Gull Island            54 MPH    0156 AM 12/11   WXFLOW
1 WNW Northport              51 MPH    1019 PM 12/10   Mesonet
1 NW Montauk                 51 MPH    0130 AM 12/11   Mesonet
From Boston NWS
West Falmouth                57 MPH    0310 AM 12/11   WXFLOW
Chapin                       53 MPH    0422 AM 12/11   WXFLOW
Woods Hole                   52 MPH    0430 AM 12/11   CWOP
Hatch Beach                  51 MPH    1253 AM 12/11   WXFLOW
...Bristol County...
New Bedford AP               49 MPH    0436 AM 12/11   ASOS
Taunton AP                   46 MPH    0345 AM 12/11   ASOS
...Nantucket County...
Nantucket AP                 51 MPH    0754 AM 12/11   ASOS
Nantucket Harbor             49 MPH    0819 AM 12/11   WXFLOW
...Plymouth County...
Marshfield AP                52 MPH    0415 AM 12/11   AWOS
Hull YC                      52 MPH    0319 AM 12/11   WXFLOW
...Kent County...
RI TF Green AP               49 MPH    0331 AM 12/11   ASOS
...Washington County...
3 ESE Westerly AP            51 MPH    0635 AM 12/11   Trained Spotter


Rain did focus on CT with central and eastern CT getting the most





12/9.  This storm is from a potent low going through the lakes and a strong southerly jet 
being out in front of the front.  We'll see strong southerlies on Sunday, with possible gusts
 in CT of 35-60mph depending on where you are, higher out east and along the coast.  
NAM currently has the highest (12z Sat) but GFS and Euro had their moments of 50-60kts 
as far west as Oxford/Bridgeport.  The southerlies will provide for some coastal flooding 
as it's a new moon. 


The rain is also pretty impressive on the NAM.  Now this is overdone likely but is in line with where the heaviest rain will fall.  

The more sane and smoothed out NBS ensemble has it more of a widespread 2-3" event with some 4+ in areas though.  That's still pretty impressive. 

To our far North and West, (Catskills, ADK,  Berks, VT) the wind won't be as bad but there will be some snow coming in as the low redevelops and the cold air rushes in.  Normally I don't believe this one, but winter storm watches and warnings are out.  I'm going to go with the NBM look more than the NAM since storms with post frontal snows are pretty commonly modeled, but don't usually pan out, at least in the TriState.  But I could see snow accumulations in N PA, and possibly NW CT (outside of the areas already mentioned). 







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