I just stumbled upon an additional factor for the winter forecast, which may contradict/influence parts of my forecast. Below is a close up of the blob.
Where that blue line ends up influences where the ridge/trough set up over North America. It could end up like this...
The blob was coined in 2013 when it made an appearance in the fall, broke down and regenerated, staying all winter. The winter of 2013-14 for the NE was cold and snowy, relentlessly so. Or that line may go right over us, meaning that sometimes cold, sometimes warm, but a lot of precip.
What did the SST anomaly look like in 2013 versus today?
For more on the blob: