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Friday, February 26, 2010

March 3- 4th storm

3-4 -results: 2 inches, which did not last. only .2 in liquid. Snow coatings both on thurs and fri following from same storm.

3-2 GFS leading the charge north

Nam is bopping around, GFS now has CT in the .5-.75 range for precip. Question is how much is rain and how much is snow. With temps in the 40's - unless it falls at night and the ground gets cold enough, the only accumulation may be on grassy surfaces and existing snow.

BTW - our 7 inches from Friday's storm melted yesterday

3-1 - all models have the storm going well offshore. Question is how much moisture gets back.
Eur0 has 93/87 (850/700mb) RH Wed morn. GFS has the same and puts out an inch of snow, but with "warm" temps around 32, might be hard to stick. NAM has no output and lower RH

So for now, no big analysis as the models continue mostly offshore.

2/27 - models bring the storm up to delmarva and then send ene. Looks like a near miss
0z runs
CMC looks best, but is just se of benchmark, but puts down a few inches - see above
EURO grazes us, but throws enough moisture back to make it interesting
GFS - mostly out to sea, but throws a lot of moisture back for a couple inches
UMKET - way out
Nogaps - way out
JMA - SE of benchmark but like the Euro and GFS, still gives some snow
DGEX - sends it due east off SC.

Interesting developments for the fourth. It was longranged on the GFS, then completely disappeared and is back again

0z runs
Euro - off OBX on the 4th (hits dc) and out to sea
UKMET - way out to sea
CMC - grazes us as it goes off obx on the 4th and out to sea
DGEX - way out to sea
GFS - off obx on the 3rd and out to sea

12z runs pushed north
Euro - obx on the 3rd, heads ne just se of bm. Grazes us
UKMET - still out to sea
CMC - pulls from obx north to bm, giving coastal areas snow - I think the pressure was 968
GFS - 984 off obx on the 3rd. Up to NJ 0z on the 4th and then hooks right, but gives the tristate a good snow fall. 980 pressure
JMA - 984 well se of bm, but would have some snow, mostly coastal.

Lots of talk about it coming north though with some gfs support

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