The problem with late Feb and Early march continues - no really cold surface temps. Yes the 850 line is below us almost the entire next two weeks, but surface temps never make it into the lower 20's and highs only in the 40's. Looking a little above normal due to the higher nite temps.
So it looks like a very moderate March, with no extremes. Thats unusual, but what hasn't been this winter.
As far as storms - nothing headed directly at us for certain, but storms will be around on the 11th (likely rain), 13th (could be big, rain to snow) and the 20th.
Provide a summary of the model runs for storms which may affect Fairfield County. Not a forecast, but summary of trends, positions and precip type/amount
Storm 3 - could be the one! (spoiler, it was)
2/9 Set up is an upper low over TX that heads northeast into TN valley and then transfers off the coast. At the upper levels, there's ...
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European - 0z run through w. PA; 12z run richmond up just west of hudson UK - savannah through central pa, 12z run richmond up just west of ...
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For DXR, Dec 1 to Feb 28, temps 1.6 above average, snow for entire season, 35-40 inches. Lots of ice and rain. 14 days with snow. 2 storms...
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Without any real cold air around, this one looks to be mostly rain for CT. The models are not in alignment: GFS - furthest south with low ov...
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