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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Possible 2-23

gfs - low from WV to OBX with secondary over SC, consolidates East of Cape May, passes se of bm and hangs around CCod . Some snow, not alot. 18z is really bizarre as it goes well SE of BM but still brings in lots of snow, then it turns around and heads NW over CCOD. As it heads over CCOd another low forms off NC and follows NE to E of BM where it turns NW and heads right over CCOD on Friday. Gotta throw both of these out!
Euro - From Cape May to CCod, then NW into ME/NH border. Could have rain from it, especially near the coast. Most normal scenario
CMC - brings low to IN hen secondaries over VA and it sits over DC bringing us snow. Also odd
DGEX - sends low up to Buffalo, secondaries (?) over SC and heads due east. Just some WAA snow to rain. Very, very different from the 6z run.
UKMEt has broad area of low pressure off East coast.
gfsens bring low from OBX to se of bm, close enough for 3-5 inches

0z runs
gfs - over nc and out to sea - nada. 6z brings up coast to NJ. r/s line close
euro - primary to lakes, secondary off nj, then stalls at 1004. r/s line very close
CMC - gets just to BM and swings NNW stalling at 992 - all snow
UKMEt - same as euro, down to 1004
DGEX - primary to PA, then secondary off nj - stalls over BM has snow from Mon nite to Friday. puts down over 18 inches!!!
GFS Ens - just south of BM


Euro - tn valley, dubl barrel w. pa and nj = "warm advection" snow - trended way north though - 1004 low
CMA - same look as Euro - trend north with dubl barrel to lakes and nj. keeps snow in though 992 low
GFS - still just south of bmark - 1000 low
UKMET - tn valley to delmarva - 992 low
GFS Ens shown above

So - Euro and CMC started flat W to E, now going Northeast. UKMEt used to go from FL to NC, now is flat. GFS the same. Way too much difference, but it looks like it will do something.

0z runs
Euro - off out over OBX - nothing - 988 low
JMA - off out over OBX - nothing
GFS - off delmarva over bmark and hangs around - nice storm
CMA - same as GFS - sticks around a little more
DGEX - goes to our north - rain
UKMet - looks promising, doesn't go that far out.

Euro puts 1000 mb over the benchmark with all snow event for us on the 23rd.
CMC and GFS also have it, a little further south. GFS switches from too south to a lakes runner every other run. UKMET starts one, but loses altogether. JMA pushes off OBX

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