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Monday, February 22, 2010

beyond the 23-24 - into the 25th 26th


Its late for a prediction, but for danbury, 4 inches of wrap around on friday, early morn. NYC will get mostly rain until 9pm -6 inches for them. Depends on if and when cold air arrives. We get dry slotted once cold air arrives.

Delayed opening today. The bad news is that while the GFS was making progress going toward the euro, thd 0z runs of the euro, ukmet and cmc moved toward the gfs and the 6 z run of the gfs and nam moved further west with the r/s line. So unless there is a correction, this looks to be the last post as it will be a rain storm.


Well, the models are consistent run to run, but there are two camps. The US models take the low up the coast, close to NY and it sits somewhere to our west, keeping us rain until the cold air arrives, at which point we are dry slotted (nam). This looks the same as last nites post, so they are consistent. NAM puts out close to 10 inches of snow in spite of the call for rain. GFS also calls for some snow, but after rain. GFS has trended further west and a bit more weak with a 980 low now over or west of NY. Earlier (6z run) had it at 976. NWS in NY and Bos have commented that the GFS is feeding back convection and making the storm too strong, thus pulling it north and west. NAM is usually a bit north and west for the same reason. Accuweather is leaning more towards gfs, and JB is defending it.

The CMC, UKMET and EURO all have the storm further out, over the gulf stream, and bring it in over mass (as described last nite as well, so there is no change there). This keeps w ct and further west and south in the cold portion and will amount to a lot of snow. These models have it a bit weaker (980) than the nam and gfs. 12z Euro track is closer to gfs, although by the time its over nyc at 980, its actually north of nyc, the thickness line is way out to sea. CMC and UKMEt are both similar in strength but bring it around NYC through RI and Mass, keeping the thickness line out east of us.

0z nam
18z gfs
12z gfs

2-22 12/18z

What was the third system, now is the main storm on most models.
While the ukmet tries to bury us on wed, it shows a stacked, 988 off Ccod on Friday morn, deepening further on Sat morning, still just a bit too far east for a major storm for us
Euro goes the same off ccod at 980 but brings it back into New England, resulting in snow fri into sat. Euro also keeps us cold the entire week.
WRF - all over the place. 12z run brings storm into E CT with us getting some snow and rain. 18z goes further east, around boston and into NH. 0z run for 2/23 goes bonkers with 970 low over NYC. Its rain at 72 hrs, but snow the other hours. See above as it moves NW into NNJ and spins for 18 hrs.
GFS - 12z moves a 984 over boston and to springfield(Fri) , to danbury (sat) and alb on Sunday where it weakens. This would clobber CT. 18z moves low from Providence to Springfield, still clobbering CT. see precip and other shots.

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