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Sunday, May 13, 2012

Early trop storm?


5/19 - Alberto forms right off the coast today

5/16

Euro still has disorganized low pressures over the gulfsteam from 5/18-5/22, with some consolidation over nyc on the 22nd. GFS 0z has nothing. 6z run has a disorganized 1012 low spinning off a front to the nw of Bermuda. Nogaps is similar to euro with disorganized, but low pressures, consolidating on the 22nd but off the delmarva. Ukmet has a 1010 low spinning over the gulfstream at 35N from the 19th to 21st. JMA forms a 1010 off the OBX on the 22nd and shows that the impulses are coming up from the gulf and tropics that are forming this.


5/14

GFS still has on the 24th. Euro doesn't, but leaves a lot of energy for the fronts to spin up a storm. Just to clarify yesterdays statement - storm would be off the coast.


5/13

Keeping eye on SE coast for the 22-26th. Looked more impressive this mornings Euro, but still a weak trop storm on the 12z.

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