Sunday, May 13, 2012
Early trop storm?
5/19 - Alberto forms right off the coast today
Euro still has disorganized low pressures over the gulfsteam from 5/18-5/22, with some consolidation over nyc on the 22nd. GFS 0z has nothing. 6z run has a disorganized 1012 low spinning off a front to the nw of Bermuda. Nogaps is similar to euro with disorganized, but low pressures, consolidating on the 22nd but off the delmarva. Ukmet has a 1010 low spinning over the gulfstream at 35N from the 19th to 21st. JMA forms a 1010 off the OBX on the 22nd and shows that the impulses are coming up from the gulf and tropics that are forming this.
GFS still has on the 24th. Euro doesn't, but leaves a lot of energy for the fronts to spin up a storm. Just to clarify yesterdays statement - storm would be off the coast.
Keeping eye on SE coast for the 22-26th. Looked more impressive this mornings Euro, but still a weak trop storm on the 12z.