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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

First plowable snow

11-26 0z run of euro at 232 does show snow on the ground for 12/5. Looks like a waa event, again.
6z gfs shows the same storm sliding south of us, then getting blocked out at sea and coming west, to give us up to 10" on the 6th, but I gotta say that looks weird. The first plowable snow is on the 9th-10th. Looks major and more likely than the prior solution. 0z shows the storm on the 5th sliding under us and out to sea, but does give us measurable snow. My guess is that becomes a cutter to the lakes.

12z Euro took weak low out under us on 12/5, missing us. 12z and 18z runs of gfs show weak low, but giving us a few inches. Then, the storm loops and comes sw from maine bringing more, but not much.

11-23 the side caption still has a map similar to today's gfs for 12/2 - 12/3 as being the first real covering of snow. But plowable (over 2") snow has not shown up yet as the pattern is going from trough to ridge, cold to warm and back again. Eventually we will get to a point where it is a warm advection snow set up, but until then its kinda dull. Although the mets are getting real excited for December.

There is a hint of a storm on the 5th, and again on the 8th which may bring snow, but its not showing up on the snow map.

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