1-22 Complicated system for tomorrow, with models all over. There is no real cold air, though some seasonal air is moving down New England. Thats enough to bring the surface to 850 layer below freezing for far west NJ and North of the Merrit. So we could see a 3-6 hr period of sleet, but the precip amt forecasts are all wacky. Also during that time frame, there isn't that much precip. Winds will be the worst part - these gusts are in kts, so multiple by 1.15. Yes that is 60-70kts over the ocean.
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| NAM Winds |
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| GFS winds |
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12z Euro printout
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LAT = 41.38 LON = -73.46
12Z JAN22
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 TOTAL 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SUN 12Z 22-JAN 4.7 6.5 1007 99 46 0.00 555 550
SUN 18Z 22-JAN 9.0 5.2 1007 85 55 0.01 555 549
MON 00Z 23-JAN 6.8 4.9 1009 87 75 0.05 554 547
MON 06Z 23-JAN 4.1 2.7 1011 86 70 0.05 554 545
MON 12Z 23-JAN 3.1 2.1 1012 78 70 0.05 555 545
MON 18Z 23-JAN 2.9 0.9 1009 71 78 0.05 555 547
TUE 00Z 24-JAN 1.4 -0.7 1007 96 98 0.15 553 547
TUE 06Z 24-JAN 1.9 0.0 1000 97 90 0.69 549 549
TUE 12Z 24-JAN 3.4 5.1 997 90 95 0.85 548 551
TUE 18Z 24-JAN 3.6 6.9 995 81 92 0.88 547 551
WED 00Z 25-JAN 0.7 5.6 999 92 94 0.99 548 549
WED 06Z 25-JAN 1.4 4.2 1001 80 84 1.03 549 548
Which is different from the 0z
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LAT = 41.38 LON = -73.46
00Z JAN22
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 TOTAL 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SUN 00Z 22-JAN 6.4 4.8 1009 94 14 562 554
SUN 06Z 22-JAN 4.5 5.7 1008 99 18 0.00 558 551
SUN 12Z 22-JAN 4.7 6.0 1007 99 60 0.00 555 549
SUN 18Z 22-JAN 8.5 5.3 1007 86 64 0.00 555 549
MON 00Z 23-JAN 6.6 5.3 1009 86 67 0.00 555 547
MON 06Z 23-JAN 3.6 2.4 1012 84 68 0.00 555 545
MON 12Z 23-JAN 2.5 2.9 1011 80 82 0.01 555 547
MON 18Z 23-JAN 2.9 0.0 1006 73 84 0.02 554 549
TUE 00Z 24-JAN 2.0 1.1 1004 94 98 0.14 551 548
TUE 06Z 24-JAN 2.2 1.7 997 98 98 0.81 547 549
TUE 12Z 24-JAN 3.3 7.3 993 95 98 1.13 545 551
TUE 18Z 24-JAN 4.0 6.0 992 95 53 1.39 541 548
WED 00Z 25-JAN 1.5 1.4 998 92 82 1.47 541 543
WED 06Z 25-JAN 1.1 0.9 1001 78 77 1.49 545 544
vs the GFS
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: LAT = 41.38 LON = -73.46
12Z JAN22 * - APPROXIMATED
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 TOTAL 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SUN 12Z 22-JAN 3.0 6.1 1007 98 45 556 550
SUN 18Z 22-JAN 9.9 4.9 1008 86 57 0.00 555 549
MON 00Z 23-JAN 6.2 4.3 1010 91 70 0.02 554 547
MON 06Z 23-JAN 4.7 0.5 1012 88 80 0.02 554 545
MON 12Z 23-JAN 2.9 2.0 1012 84 95 0.03 555 545
MON 18Z 23-JAN 3.4 2.2 1011 75 81 0.04 555 547
TUE 00Z 24-JAN 2.0 -0.9 1007 87 85 0.12 554 548
TUE 06Z 24-JAN 4.0 1.7 999 93 96 0.47 549 551
TUE 12Z 24-JAN 4.7 4.5 996 94 93 0.77 547 550
TUE 18Z 24-JAN 5.4 4.8 996 93 81 0.78 546 549
WED 00Z 25-JAN 3.1 5.3 1000 91 99 0.81 549 549
VS the colder 18z with less precip (.65 now)
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: DXR LAT= 41.37 LON= -73.48 ELE= 456
18Z JAN22 * - APPROXIMATED
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SUN 18Z 22-JAN 9.6 5.1 1007 88 56 555 549
MON 00Z 23-JAN 6.3 4.8 1009 90 74 0.01 554 546
MON 06Z 23-JAN 4.8 0.9 1011 87 69 0.01 554 545
MON 12Z 23-JAN 2.9 2.1 1012 84 98 0.01 555 546
MON 18Z 23-JAN 3.2 -1.0 1010 78 92 0.01 554 545
TUE 00Z 24-JAN 2.2 -3.3 1006 88 91 0.06 552 547
TUE 06Z 24-JAN 4.2 2.6 998 92 99 0.33 549 551
TUE 12Z 24-JAN 4.1 4.6 996 92 95 0.19 546 550
TUE 18Z 24-JAN 4.4 4.7 996 92 99 0.03 545 549
WED 00Z 25-JAN 3.0 3.7 999 90 84 0.04 546 547
Lastly the NAM wih 1.21
NAM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: DXR LAT= 41.37 LON= -73.48 ELE= 456
1P JAN22
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SUN 1P 22-JAN 10.9 5.3 1007 86 54 554 549
SUN 7P 22-JAN 7.7 4.6 1008 86 57 0.01 554 547
MON 1A 23-JAN 4.2 3.1 1010 90 63 0.01 554 545
MON 7A 23-JAN 2.3 1.5 1012 89 79 0.00 554 545
MON 1P 23-JAN 1.7 2.8 1010 84 85 0.01 555 547
MON 7P 23-JAN 1.4 0.6 1007 88 97 0.22 553 548
TUE 1A 24-JAN 1.4 1.6 1000 87 98 0.39 550 550
TUE 7A 24-JAN 1.6 2.8 998 89 92 0.47 547 549
TUE 1P 24-JAN 2.3 7.3 998 89 94 0.05 549 551
TUE 7P 24-JAN 1.3 6.9 1002 88 94 0.08 551 549
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1-20 This time frame remains fairly unremarkable today and yesterday. Still some hints of a storm popping off the coast, as well as some light snow disturbances, but the cold air charge seems to suppress the storms for the most part. Meanwhile on the 23rd-24th we have what should have been the pattern changing storm and its a doozy. 979 LP on the NAM over the SE, but mostly rain in our area with some change to wet snow later to our N and in higher elevations. No real major accumulations right now, but trend is colder.
1-18 Long range models have had a change of air mass pegged for this time period, preceded with a big "warmer" storm. Time to take a closer look now that we're ten days out.
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| 12z Euro |
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| 6z GFS para |
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| 0z gfs para |
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| 12z gfs |
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| 18z gfs |
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| GFS ens |
So the Euro is a Miller A, big storm coming up from the Gulf. The GFS has a cutter on the 25th to 27th which leads to a clipper or Miller B as portrayed above. Prior to today's runs, the Euro and GFS had all kinds of kooky solutions with storms going northwest, swirling around, stalling. It looked really odd. Today its straightening out. Some of the storms going through the lakes are coming east. I like the Euro run better than the gfs, though the ensemble doesn't support the idea of a Miller A.
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