Weather underground sticker

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Jan 26th

1-27 - total of 13" from both segments. 10 overnite, 1 between 2-8 and 2.5 before.
Other totals were amazing. Reports of 25" in Woodstock. All reports East of the River, in the northern counties were over 12", with Staffordsville officially at 19". In southern ct, most towns got 12" or more, with a few right along the coast with 9.

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
NEW CANAAN 18.0 530 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST NORWALK 17.0 110 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
GREENWICH 14.5 530 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORWALK 14.0 543 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
BRIDGEPORT 13.0 600 AM 1/27 COOP OBSERVER
DANBURY 13.0 215 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SHELTON 13.0 215 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
DARIEN 12.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
MIDDLETOWN 15.0 535 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
OLD SAYBROOK 13.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
HADDAM 12.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
NORTH HAVEN 18.5 605 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
MILFORD 15.0 300 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
BRANFORD 15.0 554 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
NEW HAVEN 13.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
SOUTHBURY 12.5 440 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WATERBURY 10.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
BEACON FALLS 9.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
MERIDEN 9.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
LISBON 17.5 702 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLCHESTER 15.0 200 AM 1/27 CT DOT
NORTH FRANKLIN 13.5 625 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
GROTON 12.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
UNCASVILLE 9.0 320 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
NORWICH 8.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...
   THOMASTON             10.5   600 AM  1/27  CT DOT
THOMASTON DAM 10.5 700 AM 1/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
WOODBURY 10.0 800 AM 1/27 WOODBURY SKI AREA
NEW MILFORD 7.5 946 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
WINSTED 7.5 824 AM 1/27 SPOTTER
LITCHFIELD 7.0 600 AM 1/27 CT DOT
TORRINGTON 7.0 346 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
CORNWALL 7.0 714 AM 1/27 MOHAWK MTN SKI AREA
BAKERSVILLE 6.5 730 AM 1/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
WINCHESTER CENTER 6.0 600 AM 1/27 CT DOT
2 N SOUTH CANAAN 6.0 600 AM 1/27 CT DOT
COLEBROOK LAKE 5.5 700 AM 1/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
NORFOLK 4.9 800 AM 1/27 CO-OP OBSERVER

HARTFORD COUNTY...
SOUTH WINDSOR 15.0 825 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
MANCHESTER 14.8 806 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
SUFFIELD 14.2 601 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
ENFIELD 13.5 809 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
WETHERSFIELD 13.0 801 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
ROCKY HILL 12.5 544 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
EAST WINDSOR 12.0 813 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
WINDSOR LOCKS 12.0 700 AM 1/27 BR5ADLEY AIRPORT
BRISTOL 12.0 730 AM 1/27
AVON 9.5 614 AM 1/27
BURLINGTON 9.0 603 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
EAST FARMINGTON HEIG 9.0 554 AM 1/27 SPOTTER
NORTH GRANBY 6.5 700 AM 1/27
GRANBY 6.0 803 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO

...TOLLAND COUNTY...
STAFFORDVILLE 19.0 757 AM 1/27 CO-OP
STAFFORD 18.0 611 AM 1/27
TOLLAND 16.0 616 AM 1/27
ELLINGTON 13.0 807 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
VERNON 13.0 600 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
ELLLINGTON 13.0 607 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
SOMERS 8.5 411 AM 1/27 SPOTTER

...WINDHAM COUNTY...
MOOSUP 17.5 901 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
EAST KILLINGLY 16.5 640 AM 1/27
DANIELSON 15.0 903 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
SCOTLAND 13.0 730 AM 1/27

1-26


10pm - reality
Snow started around 9:30 or so. Came down on and off all day, accumulated 2 inches this morning between 11 and 1. Then was light and didn't accumulate as the sun peaked through the clouds. Odd mix of mist/snow showed up around 6pm, then changed over to snow and came down heavy as a remnant thunderstorm which worked its way up the NJ coast, over NY, triggered special marine warnings, hit at 8:30. Two inches fell during the period of 8-10, with most between 8:30 and 9:30.

Other areas around NY Metro are mixing with sleet often, which may end up keeping their totals down. Areas around baltimore and dc have over 10 inches. DC has 160,000 people without power. Rain hit the Jersey coast until about 9:30 and continues out on LI.

NAM was awful for this storm - it and the arw and nmm completely missed the northern extent of the daytime snow. Knew once that happened that we were headed to at least 6" and the nws put up a winter storm warning too. Their call is 9-13 right now for Danbury. There is a lot of thunderstorms over the atlantic heading this way. If we got two more bands of 2 inches, we'll make the 9" total. But the backside approaches Scranton and it may end up pushing it out before we can get those two bands.


6:30am Trenton on south reporting snow - early dismissal from school
0z runs missed last nite
NMM = .25 qpf
ARW = .1 qpf
Euro = .5-.75qpf
SREF still has .5-1 with 1 at SE of NJTurnpike
GFS ens still have .5 - 1
6z runs
nam = .5
gfs = .25








Precip maps on the right
GFS 18z
Euro 12z
NAM 12z
CMC/GGEM 12z
JMA 12z

1-25 afternoon - ratios 12:1 or 10:1
NAM results today - all snow. 0z=8-12; 6z= 1-2", 12z=6-8" 18z=2-4"
GFS all snow 0z=6-8" (real sharp cutoff), 6z= 3-6" 12z= 4-6" 18z= 8-10"
Euro - all snow, barely at first 0z= 12-18" 12z=8-12"
CMC - 0z 6-8", 8-12" 18z RGEM over a foot
JMA - Foot
ARW and NMM - between 0 and 2" they bring the storm up to NJ then make a hard right as the High builds from the West
All tracks near the BM (except avn and nmm)

Really want the NAM to come on board, or the ARW or NMM before making a call. If you throw those out, its a 6-10" storm with a chance of 12-18"




1-25
0z Euro - 1.4 precip, all below freezing at 925 and 850. Surface temps at 33f, but north, ne wind makes that not look right. 980 low hits bm at hr 60
0z cmc - .5-.75, all below freezing surface and aloft. Odd looking elongated 990mb lp passing se the benchmark at hr54.
0z gfs ens passes 984 low just se of bm at hr 51, all snow
6z gfs only puts out .45, all snow
6z nam - .1 ots bizarre double low set up (see image at right)
ARW supports Euro, NMM supports NAM at hr 48. Would really like the nam to come back at 12z
03z sref has low over bm with over .5 precip











1-24 evening

Some maps of precip and 850 lines from the warmest time frame are above. From bottome to top: NAM precip (850 line unnecessary as its south of NYC), Euro precip and 850 line (with RH), 12z gfs precip and 850, 12z cmc precip and 850


0z Nam as now also fallen in line - but it looks fishy as two lows come up - I think its having difficulty placing the surface low with a strong upper low behind it. Looks like its trying to constantly reform the low, and thus keeps the low from really bombing. Its only 1000mb off the coast of NJ, then moves East south of the BM at 996mb. 850 temps and surface temps remain below freezing during the entire event for dxr as well as most of the nw suburbs. As noted below - once nam is on board, time to use short range models.

1-24 afternoon

GGEM gives at 12z, puts low off ACY and brings to BM. All globals on board with solution off coast to over BM. Precip around 1" with 850 temp at freezing for the warmest 3 hrs.
NAM is still OTS - by a lot.
Euro - 12z output is 1.13 for DXR - all of it below freezing at the 850, with .6 at the surface which is likely overdone - will have to look at winds when the graphic comes out.
GFS 12z output - all under freezing, .95 qpf

Based on consensus of global models - a 6" minimum snowfall should be coming with potential of 12" or greater. Once the NAM gets on board, will look at the shorter range models to narrow the range.

1-23

GGEM continues to drive the storm west. At this point, its lost all support, even its own ensembles are taking this off the coast.

GFS 0z looked ok with .5 precip as it headed east of BM, but the 6z and 12z runs brought nada as it was out to sea.
Euro was consistent in its hitting the BM or going just inside. The precip ranged from .75 at 0z to 1.75 at 12z - not a difference from track, but dynamics
UKMEt started off this morning just off the coast, this afternoons went a bit farther east.
Nam 84hr is out to sea, way out.

CMC ens, GFS ens (12z) and Euro Ens and Euro Op are all at the BM at some point. SREF is also making it there.

Conclusion: look for storm to go to benchmark, with marginal warmth along the coast bringing mix but snow inland. See if GFS and NAM agree on Monday.

1-22 -brief summary due to skiing and getting in late

0z Euro - direct hit, maybe just to the east of us. Lots of snow, over a foot, with over an inch of rain as well. 12z - brushes us with 3-6 inches.
0z CMC - takes low to coast, then inland over NC,VA then up the Del river. RGEM shows it hitting us though with a nice front end snow event.
12z is a more typical apps runner and goes right over us. Either way, lots of rain.
UKMET 0z goes from SC coast to 988 low just east of the BM. Can't tell with the time frames for the 12z - looks like it goes from inland NC to the BM
GFS - 0z and 6z drop northern branch to NC coast and goes out to sea. 12z takes gulf storm parallel to SCNC coast and keeps it going NE, missing us. 18z same as 12, but a little further west to begin, but still goes well east of CCod.
18z dgex puts 988 low right off nj, then moves it east off CCod, but with a sharp cutoff to the west of the precip so that NYC west gets nothing. 6z brings a 988 low to OBX, then right turns it out to sea.

conclusion - still too early. Like the position of the latest euro and gfs as they will probably shift west. Concerned with steadfastness of cmc this time, which usually flops around. Canadian ens are way east, with the cluster over the BM. Euro ens are to the east of the operational as well, but spread west.





Euro winds above, Euro precip below
GFS precip below





1-21

CMC puts down 2" of precip, but takes low over Del river or Hudson river depending on the run. Pressure falls to 972 - 859 winds over 70kts
UKMEt is set up to follow the CMC
Euro is further east, running over Richmond, then out to off the NJ coast and inside the BM. Its putting out over 2.5" and up to 3 in some places. Most widespread winter precip map I've ever seen. Pressure down to 984, but winds up to 70kt hitting LI. Widespread 40kt winds interior. Euro runs today put Dxr on the snow side of the border, but barely. Its surface temps are 1c but the rest of the thermal profile is under 0c.
GFS is off the coast, and not deepening - winds up to 40kts.
DGEX - out to sea, then 18z brings a 984 up over Chesapeke and then turns it out ene, brushing dxr, but hammering NJ.
JMA is a complete miss ots
Euro ens are slightly east of operational, but with a western spread
- would keep us snow,
GFS ens are close to the operational, perhaps a bit west.
Timing varies - GFS is on Tuesday, the rest are Tues nite into Wed into Thurs.
No call yet - but I think its safe to say something interesting is going to happen.

1-20

Euro 0z has it tracking up from obx to ack, but its a warm storm. dxr right on the r/s line with 850 temps at 0 and thickness at 540. 12z much colder, but less dynamic - low right into New Haven, but thickness lines running right through low. Looks like we dryslot on that one. But the precip stretches over three days on the print out with .85 output and temps real cold.

dgex - ots
gfs 0z has LP going ots, but inverted trough hitting PHL 12z snow makes it to richmond, but hr 180 is brewing a monster.

cmc - runs it further west from obx to pvd. But its colder aloft. 12z run misses completely, snow only as far north as BWI.

ukmet has nothing
JMA 990 low over Monticello on the 27th, with almost 2" of precip = rain from the catskills east.

1-19

Euro 0z has storm coming up from the south, headed right over nyc at 1000mb. R/s line near us, then moving north, so good front end situation, but also looks to be wet after the transition, then back to frozen. Thickness lines up N/S along the hudson river in the main part of the storm.

Euro 12z - way warmer.

GFS - -0z has southern slider, goes off OBX and never comes back
12z - hits us pretty hard, low over BM. But like the 20th storm, doesn't produce a lot of qpf, only .5 for now.

JMA slides off NC
0z CMC runs it up the Del River. 12z loses it
Dgex 6 and 18z slide it off south.

No comments:

Post a Comment