Jan 12-13

Results - 24 inches in Danbury, officially, but most of my measurements maxed at 20, with some at 17 and 15. Newtown had 29, N Fairfield 28, Ridgefield 26. Woodbury 29. North Haven coming in at 29.5, and still snowing, likely breaks 30 inches.




1-11 - no

No changes to below, despite some models going nuts. NAM went nuts with over 2 inches qpf in central ct, with danbury getting 1.5-1.75. However, that just can't be as there doesn't seem to be that much moisture. As of this evening, snow is about to move in, dc barely got a few inches. Baltimore a little better. One thing of note is that the LP was located by me on satellite and using the winds at the nc buoys through the day, and it was not far, perhaps 20 miles off the coast. However, the mets were saying it was 130 miles se of obx. Later, at least Mt Holly and Albany admitted the low was actually right on the coast, and way west of what the gfs, euro and ukmet had. It verified the Nam, which is frightening. The RGEM came with the low hitting central long island. The NNM and AVR are major hits as well. So it became the GFS, UKMET and Nogaps v the others. Euro split the diff, which is what my forecast is based on 8-12 inches for DXR (closer to 12" and possibly more), 6-8 for N Jersey, 8-10 for NYC 12-18 Waterbury to Hartford. I am, if the low is on the coast, worried about mixing at the coast, which will cut down the amounts.


1-10
0z NAM still on it with 1.15 QPF in the 0z run - likely a 15:1 ratio (temps a little warmer than gfs and euro) should be about 16-18 inches. Takes a 1004 low at 6z wed, to 990 at 12z, over ACK and the cape as a 98o low.

I also added some timing down to show its a progressive storm, no stalling and rapidly deepening from 1004 to as low as 980 in 12 hrs. Challenge remains - is it slower to evolve and barely further east?

1-10 - Sticking with 8-12, with possibly over 12 -16 inches. GFS now in that range, NAM seems overdone. Big fear is too much moisture/energy escapes southern system ots by the time the northern system arrives to re-energize. Will also note that the majority of precip on the Euro falls with the the 850 temps right around -7.5 to -9.8 - making it a high ratio. Based on the Euro alone, its a 16 inch storm. GFS, CMC, NAM, EURO, JMA are all at or inside the BM, which with cold air present, is the historic marker for a major snowstorm.

0z eur o - .87
12z nam - 1.2
0z cmc .25
0z ngaps - ots
ukmet - ots
6z gfs .49
12z gfs .71 - hits BM as 996 low, doesn't deepen fast
12z ukmet - ots, but still throws back some, probably 4-6
12z euro .81 1004 6z wed, 988 12z wed to 984 just NE of ACK by 18z
12z cmc .25 - hits BM as 996 low, so doesn't deepen as fast, and goes well east of CCOD, but the experimental graphic hits at 991, just to the nw of bm.
12z jma - .75-1
Suny MM5 has it going from a 1006 Low, 6z on Wed to 994 by 12z passing inside the BM as a 986 low







1-9
1z Euro came in with a big storm, over 1" qpf for nyc area, meaning 12-18 inches, easily.
18z Nam and gfs really aren't doing much with the storm, keeping it very weak. see above




12z nam above

1-9 0z Euro has .81 for a 8-12 inch storm
0z nam .5, 6z.nam .5-.7; 12z nam explodes the storm right over us with huge dynamics aloft. 1.5 -1.75 here with bullseye over new haven for 1.75-2
0z gfs .5; 6z gfs a bit further east and weaker, still with .5; 12z gfs is more dynamic, closer t0 .75, with much more wind
jma put low east, with .5
UKMET - can't tell exactly what happens between 72 and 96, but it looks like its heading to phase right over us, or just a little late
GEM - looks a more east and weaker than previous runs with only .25
Nogaps, which had consistently hit us, is now out to sea
Euro ens agree with coastal storm
6z gfsens take it over the bm,with spread to the ne, but not as much as before, and this is east of the 0z ens by a little.
CMC ens seem to cluster evenly around the bm









1-8 0z runs this morning all had a storm hitting, in one shape or another.
0z gfs has .5-.7 inches, 6 z closer to .5
0z euro has .8 inches over bm
Dgex had 1.7 inches inside bm
UKMET doesn't have precip, but comes close
CMC has up top .5 - takes it over bm - backed down on precip though
NAM is almost in range and looking good at 84hr
Nogaps has had the storm for 8 runs now.
JMA hits, but with only .5- .75 snow
GFS Ens have the low inside the bm, with spread to the west (rain?)
EUro ens have a coastal hugger
SREF ens have double barrel (as to many of the others) with the coastal being right on the coast





1-5 - most afternoon models surpess the storm, but not by much. Morning euro out to sea, but afternoon came in just east of BM. Ukmet doesn't go out far enough, but looks like its heading ots. GGEM, posted above, nails us. Dgex in the morn and afternoon just misses, but gives us snow. 0z gfs goes out off SC, 6z is direct hit, 12z heads ne after obx, 18z goes just east of BM


1-4 -
Still looking good for this storm. 0z Euro and cmc have weaker systems moving through quickly, but still bringing snow. 12 and 18z gfs puts 992 low just off nj and south of li. 6z is out to sea. Dgex goes nuts. JMA has .5qpf , but more north than the others. 12z euro just misses south






1-3 This is a little far out, but a nice looking storm has popped up for the middle of next week.